Champions League Semi-finals
Global 1-3Barcelona vs Real Madrid analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
50.1%
Win probability
1.83
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.1%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.2%
3-0
4.5%
4-1
2.7%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7.9%
2-0
7.4%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.2%
1-0
8.1%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
3.7%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.2%
22.9%
Draw
0-0
4.4%
1-1
10.4%
2-2
6.1%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
22.9%
27%
Win probability
1.29
Expected goals
0-1
5.7%
1-2
6.7%
2-3
2.6%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
15.6%
0-2
3.7%
1-3
2.9%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
7.6%
0-3
1.6%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.8%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-1%
-5%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Barcelona
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Apr. 2002 |
CEL
2 - 1
FCB
43%
24%
33%
|
90 | 88 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 Apr. 2002 |
FCB
3 - 2
ALA
72%
17%
11%
|
90 | 86 | 4 | 0 |
| 09 Apr. 2002 |
FCB
3 - 1
PAN
78%
15%
7%
|
90 | 83 | 7 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 2002 |
ATH
0 - 2
FCB
35%
25%
40%
|
90 | 86 | 4 | 0 |
| 03 Apr. 2002 |
PAN
1 - 0
FCB
26%
24%
50%
|
90 | 82 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Real Madrid
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Apr. 2002 |
RMA
4 - 1
CDT
83%
12%
6%
|
92 | 79 | 13 | 0 |
| 14 Apr. 2002 |
OSA
3 - 1
RMA
18%
24%
58%
|
92 | 80 | 12 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 2002 |
RMA
2 - 0
BYM
59%
21%
19%
|
92 | 92 | 0 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 2002 |
RMA
3 - 1
RAY
76%
15%
10%
|
92 | 85 | 7 | 0 |
| 02 Apr. 2002 |
BYM
2 - 1
RMA
47%
25%
28%
|
92 | 92 | 0 | 0 |