Barcelona vs Real Madrid analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
40.3%
Win probability
1.65
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.2%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2%
3-0
3%
4-1
1.9%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
5.5%
2-0
5.5%
3-1
4.7%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
12%
1-0
6.7%
2-1
8.6%
3-2
3.7%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
19.8%
23.4%
Draw
0-0
4.1%
1-1
10.4%
2-2
6.7%
3-3
1.9%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
23.4%
36.3%
Win probability
1.55
Expected goals
0-1
6.3%
1-2
8.1%
2-3
3.4%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
18.7%
0-2
4.9%
1-3
4.2%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
10.7%
0-3
2.5%
1-4
1.6%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0.1%
-3
4.6%
0-4
1%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.6%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
+3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Barcelona
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Nov. 1940 |
MUR
1 - 3
FCB
21%
19%
61%
|
81 | 60 | 21 | 0 |
| 17 Nov. 1940 |
FCB
2 - 0
CEL
69%
16%
15%
|
81 | 73 | 8 | 0 |
| 10 Nov. 1940 |
OVI
3 - 1
FCB
61%
18%
21%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | -1 |
| 03 Nov. 1940 |
FCB
2 - 3
ESP
56%
20%
24%
|
82 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 Oct. 1940 |
ATM
4 - 4
FCB
57%
20%
23%
|
82 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Real Madrid
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Nov. 1940 |
RMA
0 - 1
ATH
65%
18%
17%
|
89 | 86 | 3 | 0 |
| 17 Nov. 1940 |
RMA
4 - 1
SEV
73%
15%
12%
|
89 | 82 | 7 | 0 |
| 10 Nov. 1940 |
MUR
3 - 1
RMA
25%
23%
51%
|
89 | 59 | 30 | 0 |
| 03 Nov. 1940 |
RMA
3 - 1
CEL
79%
12%
8%
|
89 | 73 | 16 | 0 |
| 27 Oct. 1940 |
OVI
0 - 2
RMA
47%
22%
31%
|
89 | 80 | 9 | 0 |