Champions League Semi-finals
Global 1-0
Barcelona vs Milan analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
58.2%
Win probability
1.86
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.5%
4-0
2.9%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.2%
3-0
6.3%
4-1
2.9%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
9.7%
2-0
10.2%
3-1
6.1%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.9%
1-0
11%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.3%
22.4%
Draw
0-0
5.9%
1-1
10.6%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.4%
19.3%
Win probability
0.97
Expected goals
0-1
5.7%
1-2
5.2%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
12.7%
0-2
2.8%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
4.9%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.4%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+1%
+2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Barcelona
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr. 2006 |
ACM
0 - 1
FCB
51%
25%
25%
|
94 | 94 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 Apr. 2006 |
FCB
1 - 0
VIL
72%
17%
11%
|
94 | 90 | 4 | 0 |
| 09 Apr. 2006 |
RAC
2 - 2
FCB
16%
24%
60%
|
94 | 83 | 11 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 2006 |
FCB
2 - 0
SLB
78%
15%
8%
|
94 | 87 | 7 | 0 |
| 01 Apr. 2006 |
FCB
1 - 1
RMA
59%
21%
20%
|
94 | 92 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Milan
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Apr. 2006 |
MES
1 - 3
ACM
13%
23%
64%
|
94 | 77 | 17 | 0 |
| 18 Apr. 2006 |
ACM
0 - 1
FCB
51%
25%
25%
|
94 | 94 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 Apr. 2006 |
ACM
1 - 0
INT
58%
23%
20%
|
94 | 92 | 2 | 0 |
| 09 Apr. 2006 |
ACM
4 - 1
CHI
79%
15%
7%
|
94 | 83 | 11 | 0 |
| 04 Apr. 2006 |
ACM
3 - 1
LYO
62%
22%
16%
|
93 | 91 | 2 | +1 |