Champions League Semi-finals
Global 3-2
Barcelona vs Hamburger SV analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
89.1%
Win probability
4.07
Expected goals
10-0
0.2%
+10
0.2%
9-0
0.6%
10-1
0.2%
+9
0.8%
8-0
1.3%
9-1
0.5%
10-2
0.1%
+8
1.9%
7-0
2.5%
8-1
1.2%
9-2
0.2%
10-3
<0%
+7
4%
6-0
4.4%
7-1
2.3%
8-2
0.5%
9-3
0.1%
+6
7.3%
5-0
6.5%
6-1
3.9%
7-2
1%
8-3
0.2%
9-4
<0%
+5
11.6%
4-0
8%
5-1
5.8%
6-2
1.8%
7-3
0.3%
8-4
<0%
+4
15.9%
3-0
7.8%
4-1
7.1%
5-2
2.6%
6-3
0.5%
7-4
0.1%
+3
18.2%
2-0
5.8%
3-1
7%
4-2
3.2%
5-3
0.8%
6-4
0.1%
7-5
<0%
+2
16.9%
1-0
2.8%
2-1
5.2%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
12.3%
6.8%
Draw
0-0
0.7%
1-1
2.6%
2-2
2.3%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
6.8%
3.8%
Win probability
0.9
Expected goals
0-1
0.6%
1-2
1.1%
2-3
0.7%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
2.7%
0-2
0.3%
1-3
0.3%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
0.8%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
+1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Barcelona
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Apr. 1961 |
FCB
3 - 5
OVI
92%
6%
3%
|
90 | 76 | 14 | 0 |
| 26 Apr. 1961 |
HSV
2 - 1
FCB
34%
23%
44%
|
91 | 71 | 20 | -1 |
| 23 Apr. 1961 |
MLL
3 - 1
FCB
15%
22%
63%
|
91 | 70 | 21 | 0 |
| 12 Apr. 1961 |
FCB
1 - 0
HSV
90%
6%
4%
|
91 | 71 | 20 | 0 |
| 09 Apr. 1961 |
FCB
0 - 1
ZAR
93%
5%
2%
|
91 | 77 | 14 | 0 |
Matches
Hamburger SV
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Apr. 1961 |
HSV
0 - 2
OSN
86%
10%
5%
|
72 | 50 | 22 | 0 |
| 26 Apr. 1961 |
HSV
2 - 1
FCB
34%
23%
44%
|
71 | 91 | 20 | +1 |
| 23 Apr. 1961 |
HAN
0 - 2
HSV
29%
23%
48%
|
71 | 43 | 28 | 0 |
| 16 Apr. 1961 |
HSV
1 - 2
COH
89%
8%
3%
|
71 | 34 | 37 | 0 |
| 12 Apr. 1961 |
FCB
1 - 0
HSV
90%
6%
4%
|
71 | 91 | 20 | 0 |