Baden vs Thun analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
14.4%
Win probability
0.86
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.6%
4-1
0.3%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.8%
2-0
1.9%
3-1
1.2%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
3.4%
1-0
4.5%
2-1
4%
3-2
1.2%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
9.9%
19.7%
Draw
0-0
5.2%
1-1
9.4%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
19.7%
65.9%
Win probability
2.1
Expected goals
0-1
10.8%
1-2
9.8%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
24.1%
0-2
11.4%
1-3
6.9%
2-4
1.6%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
20%
0-3
8%
1-4
3.6%
2-5
0.7%
3-6
0.1%
-3
12.3%
0-4
4.2%
1-5
1.5%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
6%
0-5
1.8%
1-6
0.5%
2-7
0.1%
-5
2.4%
0-6
0.6%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
0.8%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-26%
+6%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
10º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
26
5º
10º
10º
76
1º
5º
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
2º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
79 | 79 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
|
2º
|
76 | 76 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
49 | 49 |
3º
|
0% | |
|
4º
|
49 | 49 |
4º
|
0% | |
|
5º
|
44 | 44 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
43 | 43 |
6º
|
0% | |
|
7º
|
43 | 43 |
7º
|
0% | |
|
8º
|
42 | 42 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
38 | 38 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
|
10º
|
26 | 26 |
10º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 100% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
100% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Baden
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Dec. 2023 |
SCH
2 - 0
BAD
55%
23%
21%
|
53 | 58 | 5 | 0 |
| 26 Nov. 2023 |
BEL
3 - 1
BAD
43%
25%
32%
|
53 | 55 | 2 | 0 |
| 10 Nov. 2023 |
BAD
0 - 4
NEX
46%
24%
30%
|
54 | 55 | 1 | -1 |
| 05 Nov. 2023 |
FCV
1 - 2
BAD
61%
22%
17%
|
53 | 63 | 10 | +1 |
| 27 Oct. 2023 |
WIL
0 - 1
BAD
59%
23%
19%
|
52 | 60 | 8 | +1 |
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Dec. 2023 |
THU
3 - 1
BEL
64%
21%
15%
|
68 | 57 | 11 | 0 |
| 08 Dec. 2023 |
THU
1 - 1
SIO
36%
26%
38%
|
68 | 71 | 3 | 0 |
| 24 Nov. 2023 |
STA
3 - 2
THU
28%
23%
49%
|
68 | 60 | 8 | 0 |
| 11 Nov. 2023 |
THU
1 - 0
SCH
58%
22%
20%
|
67 | 58 | 9 | +1 |
| 03 Nov. 2023 |
FCA
5 - 2
THU
36%
25%
40%
|
68 | 64 | 4 | -1 |