Baden vs Locarno analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
38.5%
Win probability
1.4
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.5%
3-0
2.9%
4-1
1.4%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.6%
2-0
6.3%
3-1
4%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
11.3%
1-0
9%
2-1
8.5%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
20.6%
25.5%
Draw
0-0
6.4%
1-1
12.1%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
25.5%
35.9%
Win probability
1.35
Expected goals
0-1
8.6%
1-2
8.1%
2-3
2.6%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
19.8%
0-2
5.8%
1-3
3.7%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
-2
10.4%
0-3
2.6%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
4.1%
0-4
0.9%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.3%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Baden
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Sep. 2007 |
FCZ
1 - 2
BAD
51%
24%
26%
|
39 | 41 | 2 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 2007 |
BAD
2 - 1
RAP
32%
25%
43%
|
37 | 47 | 10 | +2 |
| 25 Aug. 2007 |
KUS
1 - 2
BAD
14%
20%
67%
|
38 | 14 | 24 | -1 |
| 19 Aug. 2007 |
KRE
0 - 3
BAD
35%
24%
41%
|
37 | 31 | 6 | +1 |
| 11 Aug. 2007 |
BAD
4 - 1
GRA
49%
24%
27%
|
38 | 39 | 1 | -1 |
Matches
Locarno
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Sep. 2007 |
WIN
2 - 0
LOC
59%
22%
20%
|
51 | 56 | 5 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 2007 |
FCV
2 - 2
LOC
61%
21%
18%
|
51 | 56 | 5 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 2007 |
LOC
2 - 1
LAU
38%
27%
35%
|
50 | 52 | 2 | +1 |
| 18 Aug. 2007 |
WOH
2 - 2
LOC
50%
24%
26%
|
50 | 52 | 2 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 2007 |
LOC
2 - 0
CHA
51%
25%
24%
|
49 | 48 | 1 | +1 |