Baden vs Aarau analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
13.8%
Win probability
0.86
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.5%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.8%
2-0
1.8%
3-1
1.1%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
3.2%
1-0
4.2%
2-1
3.9%
3-2
1.2%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
9.5%
19.2%
Draw
0-0
4.9%
1-1
9.1%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
19.2%
67%
Win probability
2.15
Expected goals
0-1
10.6%
1-2
9.8%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
23.9%
0-2
11.4%
1-3
7%
2-4
1.6%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
20.3%
0-3
8.2%
1-4
3.8%
2-5
0.7%
3-6
0.1%
-3
12.7%
0-4
4.4%
1-5
1.6%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
6.3%
0-5
1.9%
1-6
0.6%
2-7
0.1%
-5
2.6%
0-6
0.7%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
0.9%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0%
-7
0.3%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-26%
-10%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
10º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
26
5º
10º
10º
43
3º
7º
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
6º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
79 | 79 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
76 | 76 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
49 | 49 |
3º
|
0% | |
|
4º
|
49 | 49 |
4º
|
0% | |
|
5º
|
44 | 44 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
|
6º
|
43 | 43 |
6º
|
0% | |
|
7º
|
43 | 43 |
7º
|
0% | |
|
8º
|
42 | 42 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
38 | 38 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
|
10º
|
26 | 26 |
10º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 100% |
|
Relegation
|
100% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Baden
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr. 2024 |
BEL
4 - 0
BAD
49%
25%
26%
|
52 | 57 | 5 | 0 |
| 13 Apr. 2024 |
BAD
0 - 3
SIO
10%
19%
72%
|
52 | 77 | 25 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 2024 |
STA
1 - 0
BAD
66%
20%
15%
|
52 | 62 | 10 | 0 |
| 30 Mar. 2024 |
BAD
2 - 1
WIL
20%
23%
57%
|
51 | 63 | 12 | +1 |
| 16 Mar. 2024 |
FCA
2 - 0
BAD
73%
17%
10%
|
51 | 67 | 16 | 0 |
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr. 2024 |
FCA
3 - 0
THU
30%
25%
46%
|
66 | 73 | 7 | 0 |
| 12 Apr. 2024 |
NEX
3 - 1
FCA
28%
24%
49%
|
67 | 61 | 6 | -1 |
| 06 Apr. 2024 |
FCA
1 - 2
SCH
54%
23%
23%
|
67 | 61 | 6 | 0 |
| 29 Mar. 2024 |
BEL
5 - 2
FCA
16%
22%
62%
|
68 | 56 | 12 | -1 |
| 23 Mar. 2024 |
FCA
2 - 2
FCD
44%
25%
31%
|
68 | 72 | 4 | 0 |