AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
71.1%
Win probability
2.26
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.1%
5-0
2.4%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.2%
4-0
5.2%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.4%
3-0
9.3%
4-1
4.1%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
14.1%
2-0
12.3%
3-1
7.2%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.2%
1-0
10.9%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.6%
17.7%
Draw
0-0
4.8%
1-1
8.4%
2-2
3.7%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
17.7%
11.2%
Win probability
0.77
Expected goals
0-1
3.7%
1-2
3.3%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
8.1%
0-2
1.4%
1-3
0.8%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.5%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
AZ Alkmaar
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct. 1999 |
AZA
0 - 1
SCH
40%
25%
36%
|
72 | 77 | 5 | 0 |
| 17 Oct. 1999 |
SPA
3 - 6
AZA
39%
25%
36%
|
72 | 64 | 8 | 0 |
| 13 Oct. 1999 |
BOS
2 - 3
AZA
53%
23%
24%
|
71 | 72 | 1 | +1 |
| 03 Oct. 1999 |
AZA
0 - 0
FEY
26%
25%
49%
|
71 | 86 | 15 | 0 |
| 26 Sep. 1999 |
BVO
2 - 4
AZA
39%
26%
35%
|
70 | 63 | 7 | +1 |
Matches
Heracles
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct. 1999 |
FCE
3 - 1
HER
63%
22%
16%
|
57 | 67 | 10 | 0 |
| 18 Oct. 1999 |
HER
1 - 1
FCD
55%
23%
22%
|
57 | 56 | 1 | 0 |
| 04 Oct. 1999 |
HER
4 - 3
NAC
37%
26%
38%
|
56 | 65 | 9 | +1 |
| 27 Sep. 1999 |
TEL
0 - 2
HER
45%
26%
29%
|
55 | 53 | 2 | +1 |
| 18 Sep. 1999 |
HER
2 - 0
FCO
51%
24%
24%
|
54 | 55 | 1 | +1 |