AZ Alkmaar vs Heerenveen analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
67.9%
Win probability
2.18
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
2%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.7%
4-0
4.6%
5-1
1.7%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.5%
3-0
8.4%
4-1
3.9%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
13%
2-0
11.6%
3-1
7.1%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.5%
1-0
10.6%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.8%
18.9%
Draw
0-0
4.9%
1-1
8.9%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
18.9%
13.2%
Win probability
0.84
Expected goals
0-1
4.1%
1-2
3.8%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
9.2%
0-2
1.7%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.1%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+1%
-8%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
37
2º
6º
5º
25
9º
16º
12º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
10º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
50 | 76 |
1º
|
60% | |
|
2º
|
48 | 72 |
2º
|
49% | |
|
3º
|
42 | 66 |
3º
|
41% | |
|
5º
|
36 | 63 |
4º
|
32.5% | |
|
|
4º
|
37 | 61 |
5º
|
26% | |
|
6º
|
35 | 59 |
6º
|
22.5% | |
|
7º
|
32 | 51 |
7º
|
44% | |
|
11º
|
24 | 45 |
8º
|
26.5% | |
|
12º
|
24 | 42 |
9º
|
8.5% | |
|
13º
|
23 | 41 |
10º
|
17% | |
|
8º
|
26 | 41 |
11º
|
17.5% | |
|
|
10º
|
25 | 40 |
12º
|
9.5% | |
|
9º
|
26 | 38 |
13º
|
15% | |
|
14º
|
21 | 36 |
14º
|
16.5% | |
|
16º
|
20 | 35 |
15º
|
18% | |
|
15º
|
21 | 35 |
16º
|
23.5% | |
|
17º
|
14 | 26 |
17º
|
65.5% | |
|
18º
|
10 | 19 |
18º
|
86% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League
|
1% | 0% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
9.5% | 0% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
17% | 0% |
|
Next round
|
72.5% | 15% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 80.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 3% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 1.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
AZ Alkmaar
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Aug. 2024 |
RKC
0 - 3
AZA
19%
23%
58%
|
88 | 73 | 15 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
GRO
0 - 0
AZA
24%
24%
52%
|
88 | 80 | 8 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
AZA
1 - 0
NEC
60%
21%
19%
|
88 | 83 | 5 | 0 |
| 10 Aug. 2024 |
ALM
0 - 1
AZA
18%
23%
60%
|
88 | 74 | 14 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
STO
0 - 1
AZA
20%
23%
58%
|
88 | 75 | 13 | 0 |
Matches
Heerenveen
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Aug. 2024 |
SCH
4 - 0
NAC
55%
22%
23%
|
78 | 73 | 5 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
SCH
1 - 1
UTR
32%
24%
44%
|
78 | 85 | 7 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 2024 |
AJA
1 - 0
SCH
68%
19%
13%
|
78 | 88 | 10 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
MID
1 - 0
SCH
47%
24%
29%
|
78 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 26 Jul. 2024 |
SCH
5 - 0
RAY
43%
25%
32%
|
78 | 83 | 5 | 0 |