AZ Alkmaar vs Heerenveen analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
67.9%
Win probability
2.18
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
2%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.7%
4-0
4.6%
5-1
1.7%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.5%
3-0
8.4%
4-1
3.9%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
13%
2-0
11.6%
3-1
7.1%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.5%
1-0
10.6%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.8%
18.9%
Draw
0-0
4.9%
1-1
8.9%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
18.9%
13.2%
Win probability
0.84
Expected goals
0-1
4.1%
1-2
3.8%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
9.2%
0-2
1.7%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.1%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
-5%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
16
2º
5º
2º
7
11º
15º
12º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
11º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
18 | 72 |
1º
|
50.5% | |
|
|
2º
|
16 | 67 |
2º
|
27% | |
|
9º
|
7 | 65 |
3º
|
21.5% | |
|
5º
|
9 | 63 |
4º
|
15% | |
|
4º
|
11 | 62 |
5º
|
18% | |
|
3º
|
13 | 61 |
6º
|
13% | |
|
12º
|
6 | 49 |
7º
|
12% | |
|
7º
|
9 | 49 |
8º
|
15.5% | |
|
8º
|
8 | 45 |
9º
|
11% | |
|
6º
|
9 | 43 |
10º
|
16% | |
|
10º
|
7 | 43 |
11º
|
10.5% | |
|
|
11º
|
7 | 41 |
12º
|
8% | |
|
16º
|
4 | 37 |
13º
|
10.5% | |
|
13º
|
6 | 36 |
14º
|
13% | |
|
14º
|
6 | 34 |
15º
|
13% | |
|
15º
|
6 | 31 |
16º
|
23% | |
|
17º
|
2 | 26 |
17º
|
32.5% | |
|
18º
|
0 | 24 |
18º
|
47% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
14.5% | 0% |
|
Champions League
|
27% | 0% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
17.5% | 0% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
16% | 0.5% |
|
Next round
|
23% | 19% |
|
Mid-table
|
2% | 73% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 4% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 3.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
AZ Alkmaar
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Aug. 2024 |
RKC
0 - 3
AZA
19%
23%
58%
|
88 | 73 | 15 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
GRO
0 - 0
AZA
24%
24%
52%
|
88 | 80 | 8 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
AZA
1 - 0
NEC
60%
21%
19%
|
88 | 83 | 5 | 0 |
| 10 Aug. 2024 |
ALM
0 - 1
AZA
18%
23%
60%
|
88 | 74 | 14 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
STO
0 - 1
AZA
20%
23%
58%
|
88 | 75 | 13 | 0 |
Matches
Heerenveen
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Aug. 2024 |
SCH
4 - 0
NAC
55%
22%
23%
|
78 | 73 | 5 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
SCH
1 - 1
UTR
32%
24%
44%
|
78 | 85 | 7 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 2024 |
AJA
1 - 0
SCH
68%
19%
13%
|
78 | 88 | 10 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
MID
1 - 0
SCH
47%
24%
29%
|
78 | 81 | 3 | 0 |
| 26 Jul. 2024 |
SCH
5 - 0
RAY
43%
25%
32%
|
78 | 83 | 5 | 0 |