Avranches vs Saumur analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
58.4%
Win probability
1.91
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.6%
4-0
3%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.4%
3-0
6.3%
4-1
3%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
9.9%
2-0
9.8%
3-1
6.3%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.9%
1-0
10.3%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
24%
22%
Draw
0-0
5.4%
1-1
10.4%
2-2
5%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
22%
19.6%
Win probability
1.01
Expected goals
0-1
5.4%
1-2
5.2%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
12.7%
0-2
2.7%
1-3
1.8%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.5%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
-10%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
22
3º
12º
4º
15
4º
15º
15º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
13º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
2º
|
30 | 63 |
1º
|
64.5% | |
|
1º
|
33 | 60 |
2º
|
47.5% | |
|
7º
|
22 | 52 |
3º
|
34.5% | |
|
|
8º
|
22 | 47 |
4º
|
15.5% | |
|
3º
|
27 | 46 |
5º
|
16% | |
|
5º
|
22 | 46 |
6º
|
16% | |
|
9º
|
21 | 42 |
7º
|
10.5% | |
|
4º
|
25 | 41 |
8º
|
14% | |
|
6º
|
22 | 38 |
9º
|
9.5% | |
|
10º
|
18 | 36 |
10º
|
17% | |
|
11º
|
17 | 35 |
11º
|
13.5% | |
|
14º
|
13 | 32 |
12º
|
15% | |
|
12º
|
16 | 32 |
13º
|
12.5% | |
|
15º
|
12 | 30 |
14º
|
17.5% | |
|
|
13º
|
15 | 30 |
15º
|
19.5% | |
|
16º
|
10 | 19 |
16º
|
75.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0.5% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
98.5% | 38.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0.5% | 11% |
|
Relegation
|
0.5% | 50.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Avranches
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Oct. 2024 |
VHO
1 - 2
AVR
12%
16%
72%
|
52 | 32 | 20 | 0 |
| 19 Oct. 2024 |
GIR
1 - 0
AVR
73%
18%
9%
|
53 | 73 | 20 | -1 |
| 12 Oct. 2024 |
TEM
1 - 3
AVR
6%
12%
82%
|
53 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| 04 Oct. 2024 |
AVR
1 - 1
BOU
58%
22%
20%
|
53 | 47 | 6 | 0 |
| 21 Sep. 2024 |
DIN
1 - 1
AVR
34%
26%
40%
|
53 | 49 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Saumur
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Oct. 2024 |
LAS
1 - 3
SAU
9%
15%
77%
|
48 | 18 | 30 | 0 |
| 19 Oct. 2024 |
SAU
2 - 2
VOL
49%
25%
26%
|
48 | 48 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 Oct. 2024 |
PAB
1 - 3
SAU
12%
15%
73%
|
48 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| 05 Oct. 2024 |
SAU
1 - 2
GIR
10%
19%
72%
|
48 | 72 | 24 | 0 |
| 21 Sep. 2024 |
BOU
0 - 1
SAU
43%
24%
32%
|
48 | 47 | 1 | 0 |