Avranches vs Bourges Foot 18 analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
58.3%
Win probability
1.95
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.6%
4-0
3%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.5%
3-0
6.1%
4-1
3.2%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10%
2-0
9.4%
3-1
6.5%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.8%
1-0
9.7%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.6%
21.7%
Draw
0-0
4.9%
1-1
10.2%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
21.7%
20%
Win probability
1.05
Expected goals
0-1
5.2%
1-2
5.4%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
12.8%
0-2
2.7%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.2%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.6%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
+6%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
22
3º
12º
4º
17
2º
11º
11º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
11º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
2º
|
30 | 63 |
1º
|
64.5% | |
|
1º
|
33 | 60 |
2º
|
47.5% | |
|
7º
|
22 | 52 |
3º
|
34.5% | |
|
|
8º
|
22 | 47 |
4º
|
15.5% | |
|
3º
|
27 | 46 |
5º
|
16% | |
|
5º
|
22 | 46 |
6º
|
16% | |
|
9º
|
21 | 42 |
7º
|
10.5% | |
|
4º
|
25 | 41 |
8º
|
14% | |
|
6º
|
22 | 38 |
9º
|
9.5% | |
|
10º
|
18 | 36 |
10º
|
17% | |
|
|
11º
|
17 | 35 |
11º
|
13.5% | |
|
14º
|
13 | 32 |
12º
|
15% | |
|
12º
|
16 | 32 |
13º
|
12.5% | |
|
15º
|
12 | 30 |
14º
|
17.5% | |
|
13º
|
15 | 30 |
15º
|
19.5% | |
|
16º
|
10 | 19 |
16º
|
75.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0.5% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
98.5% | 70.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0.5% | 14.5% |
|
Relegation
|
0.5% | 15% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Avranches
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Sep. 2024 |
DIN
1 - 1
AVR
34%
26%
40%
|
53 | 49 | 4 | 0 |
| 13 Sep. 2024 |
AVR
3 - 1
POI
75%
16%
9%
|
52 | 43 | 9 | +1 |
| 07 Sep. 2024 |
LPS
2 - 1
AVR
14%
21%
66%
|
52 | 37 | 15 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2024 |
AVR
1 - 3
LOC
71%
18%
11%
|
53 | 43 | 10 | -1 |
| 24 Aug. 2024 |
GRA
0 - 1
AVR
38%
25%
37%
|
52 | 49 | 3 | +1 |
Matches
Bourges Foot 18
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Sep. 2024 |
BOU
0 - 1
SAU
43%
24%
32%
|
47 | 48 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 Sep. 2024 |
GIR
0 - 0
BOU
67%
20%
12%
|
47 | 72 | 25 | 0 |
| 07 Sep. 2024 |
BOU
2 - 3
VOL
45%
25%
30%
|
47 | 49 | 2 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2024 |
BOU
1 - 1
DIN
46%
25%
29%
|
47 | 47 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 Aug. 2024 |
POI
1 - 2
BOU
39%
25%
36%
|
46 | 43 | 3 | +1 |