Avaí vs Joinville analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
39.7%
Win probability
1.26
Expected goals
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.3%
4-0
1%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.3%
3-0
3.1%
4-1
1.1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.4%
2-0
7.4%
3-1
3.5%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
+2
11.5%
1-0
11.7%
2-1
8.2%
3-2
1.9%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.1%
27.7%
Draw
0-0
9.2%
1-1
13.1%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
27.7%
32.6%
Win probability
1.12
Expected goals
0-1
10.3%
1-2
7.3%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
19.6%
0-2
5.8%
1-3
2.7%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0%
-2
9%
0-3
2.2%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.1%
-3
3%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-1%
+3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Avaí
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Oct. 2014 |
PPE
3 - 1
AVA
57%
24%
19%
|
67 | 74 | 7 | 0 |
| 15 Oct. 2014 |
ATL
2 - 0
AVA
41%
26%
33%
|
68 | 65 | 3 | -1 |
| 12 Oct. 2014 |
AVA
1 - 0
ICA
65%
22%
14%
|
68 | 58 | 10 | 0 |
| 08 Oct. 2014 |
ABC
2 - 1
AVA
32%
27%
42%
|
69 | 62 | 7 | -1 |
| 04 Oct. 2014 |
AVA
0 - 2
NAU
60%
23%
17%
|
70 | 62 | 8 | -1 |
Matches
Joinville
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct. 2014 |
JEC
3 - 0
ABC
65%
22%
13%
|
70 | 62 | 8 | 0 |
| 18 Oct. 2014 |
JEC
3 - 0
CEA
40%
27%
33%
|
70 | 74 | 4 | 0 |
| 11 Oct. 2014 |
VIL
0 - 1
JEC
18%
26%
56%
|
70 | 51 | 19 | 0 |
| 08 Oct. 2014 |
JEC
1 - 1
SAN
57%
24%
19%
|
70 | 66 | 4 | 0 |
| 05 Oct. 2014 |
ARN
1 - 0
JEC
37%
27%
36%
|
71 | 64 | 7 | -1 |