Avaí vs Hercílio Luz analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
79.1%
Win probability
2.27
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1.3%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.4%
5-0
3.3%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
<0%
+5
3.9%
4-0
7.3%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
8.9%
3-0
12.9%
4-1
3.3%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
16.5%
2-0
17.1%
3-1
5.7%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
<0%
+2
23.6%
1-0
15.1%
2-1
7.6%
3-2
1.3%
4-3
0.1%
+1
24%
15.2%
Draw
0-0
6.6%
1-1
6.7%
2-2
1.7%
3-3
0.2%
4-4
<0%
0
15.2%
5.7%
Win probability
0.44
Expected goals
0-1
2.9%
1-2
1.5%
2-3
0.2%
3-4
0%
-1
4.7%
0-2
0.7%
1-3
0.2%
2-4
0%
-2
0.9%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0%
-3
0.1%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+11%
-16%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Avaí
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Apr. 2021 |
AVA
2 - 0
CAS
57%
23%
20%
|
65 | 57 | 8 | 0 |
| 11 Apr. 2021 |
AVA
0 - 0
CAC
71%
18%
11%
|
65 | 48 | 17 | 0 |
| 08 Apr. 2021 |
AVA
1 - 0
JEC
74%
17%
9%
|
65 | 50 | 15 | 0 |
| 04 Apr. 2021 |
MET
0 - 1
AVA
11%
20%
69%
|
65 | 43 | 22 | 0 |
| 02 Apr. 2021 |
AVA
0 - 0
MAR
75%
17%
8%
|
65 | 50 | 15 | 0 |
Matches
Hercílio Luz
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Apr. 2021 |
BRU
2 - 1
HER
77%
16%
8%
|
45 | 58 | 13 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 2021 |
HER
0 - 0
CAC
31%
23%
45%
|
45 | 49 | 4 | 0 |
| 01 Apr. 2021 |
FFL
3 - 0
HER
74%
18%
8%
|
45 | 60 | 15 | 0 |
| 27 Mar. 2021 |
HER
2 - 2
MET
51%
24%
26%
|
46 | 41 | 5 | -1 |
| 24 Mar. 2021 |
CHA
0 - 1
HER
78%
17%
5%
|
44 | 77 | 33 | +2 |