Auckland FC vs Melbourne Victory analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
18.4%
Win probability
0.86
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.8%
4-1
0.3%
5-2
<0%
+3
1.1%
2-0
2.8%
3-1
1.4%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
4.4%
1-0
6.4%
2-1
4.8%
3-2
1.2%
4-3
0.1%
5-4
<0%
+1
12.5%
23.5%
Draw
0-0
7.5%
1-1
11.1%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.5%
58.1%
Win probability
1.74
Expected goals
0-1
13%
1-2
9.7%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
25.3%
0-2
11.2%
1-3
5.6%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.1%
-2
18%
0-3
6.5%
1-4
2.4%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
9.3%
0-4
2.8%
1-5
0.8%
2-6
0.1%
-4
3.8%
0-5
1%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
1.2%
0-6
0.3%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.3%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+1416%
+3%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
33
1º
6º
6º
25
1º
7º
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
3º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
2º
|
28 | 49 |
1º
|
62% | |
|
7º
|
24 | 45 |
2º
|
22% | |
|
|
3º
|
25 | 43 |
3º
|
18% | |
|
5º
|
24 | 41 |
4º
|
15.5% | |
|
4º
|
25 | 40 |
5º
|
18% | |
|
|
1º
|
33 | 39 |
6º
|
15.5% | |
|
6º
|
24 | 38 |
7º
|
16% | |
|
9º
|
20 | 38 |
8º
|
11% | |
|
8º
|
21 | 36 |
9º
|
15.5% | |
|
10º
|
19 | 34 |
10º
|
33% | |
|
11º
|
12 | 26 |
11º
|
71.5% | |
|
13º
|
6 | 17 |
12º
|
38.5% | |
|
12º
|
9 | 17 |
13º
|
47% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion play-offs
|
5.5% | 30.5% |
|
Next round
|
50% | 55% |
|
Mid-table
|
44.5% | 14.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Auckland FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Dec. 2024 |
CCM
1 - 4
AFC
76%
16%
8%
|
19 | 74 | 55 | 0 |
| 21 Dec. 2024 |
AFC
0 - 4
WUF
15%
20%
65%
|
19 | 64 | 45 | 0 |
| 15 Dec. 2024 |
MCI
2 - 2
AFC
74%
17%
9%
|
18 | 74 | 56 | +1 |
| 07 Dec. 2024 |
AFC
2 - 1
WPH
19%
25%
56%
|
17 | 73 | 56 | +1 |
| 30 Nov. 2024 |
AFC
2 - 0
NEW
16%
21%
63%
|
15 | 63 | 48 | +2 |
Matches
Melbourne Victory
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Dec. 2024 |
SYD
3 - 0
MEL
46%
25%
29%
|
75 | 74 | 1 | 0 |
| 21 Dec. 2024 |
MEL
1 - 1
MCI
39%
26%
35%
|
74 | 74 | 0 | +1 |
| 08 Dec. 2024 |
MEL
2 - 0
PER
67%
20%
13%
|
74 | 58 | 16 | 0 |
| 01 Dec. 2024 |
WUF
1 - 3
MEL
25%
26%
49%
|
73 | 63 | 10 | +1 |
| 24 Nov. 2024 |
WPH
1 - 0
MEL
41%
26%
34%
|
74 | 72 | 2 | -1 |