Conmebol Sudamericana 1/16
Global 1-2
Aucas vs Liga de Quito analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
45.2%
Win probability
1.43
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.4%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.9%
3-0
4%
4-1
1.5%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.8%
2-0
8.3%
3-1
4.3%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
13.5%
1-0
11.6%
2-1
9%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.3%
26.4%
Draw
0-0
8.1%
1-1
12.5%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.4%
28.4%
Win probability
1.08
Expected goals
0-1
8.8%
1-2
6.8%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
17.5%
0-2
4.7%
1-3
2.4%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0%
-2
7.7%
0-3
1.7%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.5%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aucas
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Sep. 2004 |
AUC
2 - 1
BSC
38%
27%
35%
|
74 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 08 Sep. 2004 |
MAC
2 - 1
AUC
32%
29%
40%
|
74 | 66 | 8 | 0 |
| 21 Aug. 2004 |
AUC
1 - 0
CUE
43%
27%
30%
|
74 | 76 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2004 |
ESP
0 - 2
AUC
36%
27%
37%
|
73 | 63 | 10 | +1 |
| 15 Aug. 2004 |
AUC
2 - 0
EME
47%
26%
27%
|
73 | 73 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Liga de Quito
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Sep. 2004 |
LIG
2 - 1
ESP
75%
17%
9%
|
77 | 62 | 15 | 0 |
| 08 Sep. 2004 |
NAC
1 - 0
LIG
49%
25%
26%
|
77 | 77 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 Aug. 2004 |
LIG
5 - 2
EME
58%
23%
19%
|
77 | 72 | 5 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2004 |
LIG
0 - 2
QUI
52%
24%
24%
|
78 | 75 | 3 | -1 |
| 15 Aug. 2004 |
OLM
2 - 0
LIG
34%
27%
40%
|
78 | 71 | 7 | 0 |