Copa Libertadores Quarter-finals
First-leg 1-0
At. Nacional vs Vasco da Gama analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
57.3%
Win probability
1.84
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.4%
4-0
2.8%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4%
3-0
6.1%
4-1
2.8%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
9.5%
2-0
9.9%
3-1
6.1%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.6%
1-0
10.8%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.2%
22.6%
Draw
0-0
5.8%
1-1
10.7%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.6%
20.1%
Win probability
1
Expected goals
0-1
5.8%
1-2
5.3%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
13.1%
0-2
2.9%
1-3
1.8%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
5.1%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.5%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+4%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
At. Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Aug. 1990 |
VAS
0 - 0
NAC
67%
18%
15%
|
76 | 78 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 Aug. 1990 |
NAC
1 - 0
CCP
61%
20%
18%
|
76 | 75 | 1 | 0 |
| 08 Aug. 1990 |
CCP
0 - 0
NAC
53%
23%
24%
|
76 | 75 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 Mar. 1990 |
NAC
0 - 1
BOC
40%
25%
35%
|
76 | 81 | 5 | 0 |
| 17 Dec. 1989 |
ACM
1 - 0
NAC
74%
18%
8%
|
76 | 90 | 14 | 0 |
Matches
Vasco da Gama
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Sep. 1990 |
VAS
0 - 0
FLU
59%
23%
18%
|
77 | 75 | 2 | 0 |
| 05 Sep. 1990 |
ECS
0 - 0
VAS
43%
30%
28%
|
77 | 65 | 12 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 1990 |
VAS
0 - 1
INT
72%
18%
10%
|
78 | 70 | 8 | -1 |
| 22 Aug. 1990 |
VAS
0 - 0
NAC
67%
18%
15%
|
78 | 76 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 Aug. 1990 |
COL
3 - 3
VAS
56%
24%
21%
|
78 | 76 | 2 | 0 |