Conmebol Sudamericana 1/16
Global 2-4
At. Nacional vs River Plate Montevideo analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
61.8%
Win probability
1.86
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.6%
4-0
3.4%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.1%
+4
4.6%
3-0
7.3%
4-1
2.8%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
10.6%
2-0
11.7%
3-1
6.1%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
19.1%
1-0
12.6%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.2%
22%
Draw
0-0
6.8%
1-1
10.5%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
22%
16.2%
Win probability
0.83
Expected goals
0-1
5.6%
1-2
4.3%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
11.2%
0-2
2.3%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.8%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
At. Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct. 2020 |
PAT
2 - 1
NAC
17%
26%
58%
|
81 | 65 | 16 | 0 |
| 19 Oct. 2020 |
NAC
2 - 2
AME
53%
24%
23%
|
81 | 78 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 Oct. 2020 |
AGU
2 - 3
NAC
23%
27%
50%
|
81 | 69 | 12 | 0 |
| 11 Oct. 2020 |
NAC
2 - 2
JUN
54%
25%
22%
|
81 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
| 07 Oct. 2020 |
BUC
1 - 2
NAC
26%
27%
47%
|
81 | 69 | 12 | 0 |
Matches
River Plate Montevideo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct. 2020 |
RIV
4 - 0
DAN
61%
22%
16%
|
71 | 65 | 6 | 0 |
| 17 Oct. 2020 |
PEÑ
1 - 2
RIV
56%
23%
20%
|
69 | 76 | 7 | +2 |
| 10 Oct. 2020 |
PRO
1 - 2
RIV
44%
26%
30%
|
70 | 70 | 0 | -1 |
| 06 Oct. 2020 |
RIV
1 - 1
PLA
54%
24%
22%
|
70 | 69 | 1 | 0 |
| 21 Sep. 2020 |
TOR
1 - 0
RIV
47%
25%
28%
|
71 | 71 | 0 | -1 |