Copa Libertadores Final
Global 2-1
At. Nacional vs Independiente del Valle analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
47.8%
Win probability
1.75
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
1.8%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.8%
3-0
4.2%
4-1
2.4%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7.2%
2-0
7.2%
3-1
5.5%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.5%
1-0
8.2%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
3.6%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22%
23.4%
Draw
0-0
4.7%
1-1
10.8%
2-2
6.2%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.4%
28.8%
Win probability
1.31
Expected goals
0-1
6.2%
1-2
7%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
16.4%
0-2
4%
1-3
3.1%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
8.1%
0-3
1.8%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
At. Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul. 2016 |
FOR
0 - 1
NAC
18%
27%
55%
|
80 | 64 | 16 | 0 |
| 21 Jul. 2016 |
IVT
1 - 1
NAC
45%
25%
30%
|
80 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 Jul. 2016 |
NAC
2 - 2
TOL
54%
24%
22%
|
80 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 Jul. 2016 |
NAC
2 - 1
SAO
53%
24%
22%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | -1 |
| 11 Jul. 2016 |
NAC
2 - 1
JAG
74%
17%
9%
|
80 | 64 | 16 | +1 |
Matches
Independiente del Valle
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jul. 2016 |
CUE
1 - 0
IVT
25%
26%
50%
|
79 | 71 | 8 | 0 |
| 21 Jul. 2016 |
IVT
1 - 1
NAC
45%
25%
30%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 20 Jul. 2016 |
NAC
5 - 2
IVT
33%
26%
41%
|
80 | 73 | 7 | -1 |
| 18 Jul. 2016 |
IVT
1 - 1
LIG
63%
22%
15%
|
80 | 75 | 5 | 0 |
| 15 Jul. 2016 |
BOC
2 - 3
IVT
52%
24%
24%
|
80 | 83 | 3 | 0 |