Copa del Rey Quarter-finals
Global 5-4
Atlético vs Real Madrid analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
31.7%
Win probability
1.36
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.7%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.1%
3-0
2.1%
4-1
1.2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.5%
2-0
4.6%
3-1
3.4%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
9.1%
1-0
6.7%
2-1
7.5%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
17.6%
24%
Draw
0-0
4.9%
1-1
11%
2-2
6.2%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24%
44.3%
Win probability
1.65
Expected goals
0-1
8.1%
1-2
9.1%
2-3
3.4%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
21.4%
0-2
6.7%
1-3
5%
2-4
1.4%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
13.4%
0-3
3.7%
1-4
2.1%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0.1%
-3
6.3%
0-4
1.5%
1-5
0.7%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
2.3%
0-5
0.5%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.7%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Atlético
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 May. 1964 |
RMA
2 - 2
ATM
89%
7%
3%
|
86 | 94 | 8 | 0 |
| 20 May. 1964 |
ATM
3 - 0
CEL
82%
12%
6%
|
86 | 65 | 21 | 0 |
| 17 May. 1964 |
CEL
2 - 1
ATM
34%
26%
40%
|
87 | 63 | 24 | -1 |
| 09 May. 1964 |
ATM
7 - 0
MAL
82%
12%
6%
|
86 | 62 | 24 | +1 |
| 03 May. 1964 |
MAL
0 - 2
ATM
35%
26%
39%
|
86 | 63 | 23 | 0 |
Matches
Real Madrid
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 May. 1964 |
INT
3 - 1
RMA
49%
23%
29%
|
94 | 89 | 5 | 0 |
| 23 May. 1964 |
RMA
2 - 2
ATM
89%
7%
3%
|
94 | 86 | 8 | 0 |
| 19 May. 1964 |
RSO
0 - 1
RMA
14%
21%
65%
|
94 | 68 | 26 | 0 |
| 16 May. 1964 |
RMA
1 - 0
RSO
94%
4%
2%
|
94 | 68 | 26 | 0 |
| 10 May. 1964 |
SDI
2 - 3
RMA
13%
20%
67%
|
94 | 58 | 36 | 0 |