Champions League Semi-finals
Global 3-4
Atlético vs Real Madrid analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
35.9%
Win probability
1.64
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
1.7%
3-0
2.4%
4-1
1.8%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
4.8%
2-0
4.4%
3-1
4.3%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
10.6%
1-0
5.4%
2-1
7.9%
3-2
3.8%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
18.1%
22.5%
Draw
0-0
3.3%
1-1
9.6%
2-2
7%
3-3
2.2%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
22.5%
41.5%
Win probability
1.77
Expected goals
0-1
5.8%
1-2
8.5%
2-3
4.1%
3-4
1%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
19.6%
0-2
5.2%
1-3
5%
2-4
1.8%
3-5
0.4%
4-6
0%
-2
12.4%
0-3
3.1%
1-4
2.2%
2-5
0.6%
3-6
0.1%
4-7
0%
-3
6.1%
0-4
1.4%
1-5
0.8%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
2.4%
0-5
0.5%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.8%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
1-8
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+1%
+2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Atlético
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 May. 1959 |
BAS
2 - 0
ATM
26%
23%
52%
|
85 | 55 | 30 | 0 |
| 26 Apr. 1959 |
ATM
5 - 1
BAS
91%
6%
3%
|
85 | 56 | 29 | 0 |
| 23 Apr. 1959 |
RMA
2 - 1
ATM
86%
9%
5%
|
85 | 92 | 7 | 0 |
| 19 Apr. 1959 |
UDL
2 - 2
ATM
33%
24%
44%
|
85 | 73 | 12 | 0 |
| 12 Apr. 1959 |
ATM
1 - 1
FCB
38%
23%
39%
|
85 | 92 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Real Madrid
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 May. 1959 |
RMA
3 - 0
EXT
96%
3%
1%
|
92 | 54 | 38 | 0 |
| 26 Apr. 1959 |
EXT
0 - 5
RMA
11%
18%
71%
|
92 | 55 | 37 | 0 |
| 23 Apr. 1959 |
RMA
2 - 1
ATM
86%
9%
5%
|
92 | 85 | 7 | 0 |
| 19 Apr. 1959 |
RMA
3 - 3
ESP
88%
8%
4%
|
92 | 81 | 11 | 0 |
| 12 Apr. 1959 |
ATH
4 - 1
RMA
43%
23%
34%
|
92 | 87 | 5 | 0 |