Atlético vs Real Madrid analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
57.2%
Win probability
2.2
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2%
4-0
2.9%
5-1
1.7%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
0.1%
+4
5%
3-0
5.2%
4-1
3.8%
5-2
1.1%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
10.3%
2-0
7.1%
3-1
6.9%
4-2
2.5%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
17.1%
1-0
6.4%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
4.6%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.8%
20.2%
Draw
0-0
2.9%
1-1
8.6%
2-2
6.3%
3-3
2%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
20.2%
22.6%
Win probability
1.33
Expected goals
0-1
3.9%
1-2
5.7%
2-3
2.8%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
13.2%
0-2
2.6%
1-3
2.5%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
6.3%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.3%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0.1%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
+2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Atlético
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb. 1943 |
GRA
3 - 1
ATM
40%
23%
37%
|
84 | 73 | 11 | 0 |
| 07 Feb. 1943 |
ATM
1 - 0
SEV
64%
18%
18%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 31 Jan. 1943 |
ATH
5 - 2
ATM
70%
16%
14%
|
85 | 86 | 1 | -1 |
| 24 Jan. 1943 |
ATM
3 - 0
OVI
69%
16%
15%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | +1 |
| 17 Jan. 1943 |
ESP
4 - 2
ATM
51%
22%
27%
|
85 | 80 | 5 | -1 |
Matches
Real Madrid
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb. 1943 |
RMA
2 - 4
CEL
72%
16%
12%
|
86 | 77 | 9 | 0 |
| 07 Feb. 1943 |
CAS
3 - 0
RMA
35%
24%
41%
|
86 | 75 | 11 | 0 |
| 31 Jan. 1943 |
RMA
3 - 1
BET
77%
13%
10%
|
86 | 69 | 17 | 0 |
| 24 Jan. 1943 |
ZAR
0 - 2
RMA
33%
24%
44%
|
86 | 69 | 17 | 0 |
| 17 Jan. 1943 |
RMA
4 - 3
DEP
77%
14%
9%
|
86 | 74 | 12 | 0 |