Atlético vs Real Madrid analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
39.1%
Win probability
1.64
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.2%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
1.9%
3-0
2.9%
4-1
1.9%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
5.3%
2-0
5.2%
3-1
4.6%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
11.6%
1-0
6.4%
2-1
8.4%
3-2
3.7%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
19.4%
23.2%
Draw
0-0
3.9%
1-1
10.2%
2-2
6.8%
3-3
2%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
23.2%
37.6%
Win probability
1.61
Expected goals
0-1
6.2%
1-2
8.2%
2-3
3.6%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
-1
19%
0-2
5%
1-3
4.4%
2-4
1.5%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
11.2%
0-3
2.7%
1-4
1.8%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0.1%
-3
5%
0-4
1.1%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.8%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+2%
-6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Atlético
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Oct. 1940 |
MUR
1 - 1
ATM
27%
24%
49%
|
80 | 59 | 21 | 0 |
| 29 Sep. 1940 |
ATM
5 - 4
CEL
70%
16%
14%
|
80 | 72 | 8 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 1940 |
ATM
7 - 1
ESP
49%
21%
30%
|
79 | 82 | 3 | +1 |
| 01 Sep. 1940 |
ESP
3 - 3
ATM
68%
16%
16%
|
78 | 82 | 4 | +1 |
| 28 May. 1940 |
ATM
2 - 4
ZAR
72%
16%
12%
|
79 | 74 | 5 | -1 |
Matches
Real Madrid
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Oct. 1940 |
RMA
5 - 3
HER
78%
13%
9%
|
89 | 79 | 10 | 0 |
| 29 Sep. 1940 |
ZAR
1 - 1
RMA
31%
24%
45%
|
89 | 76 | 13 | 0 |
| 30 Jun. 1940 |
RMA
2 - 3
ESP
73%
15%
13%
|
89 | 82 | 7 | 0 |
| 23 Jun. 1940 |
ZAR
1 - 1
RMA
31%
23%
46%
|
89 | 76 | 13 | 0 |
| 16 Jun. 1940 |
RMA
1 - 0
ZAR
85%
10%
5%
|
89 | 76 | 13 | 0 |