Copa del Rey Last 16
Global 5-1
Atlético vs Lorca Deportiva analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
84.7%
Win probability
2.53
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.7%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.8%
6-0
2%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
2.3%
5-0
4.8%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
<0%
+5
5.6%
4-0
9.6%
5-1
1.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
11.4%
3-0
15.2%
4-1
3.3%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
18.8%
2-0
18%
3-1
5.3%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
<0%
+2
23.9%
1-0
14.3%
2-1
6.3%
3-2
0.9%
4-3
0.1%
+1
21.5%
11.8%
Draw
0-0
5.6%
1-1
5%
2-2
1.1%
3-3
0.1%
0
11.8%
3.5%
Win probability
0.35
Expected goals
0-1
2%
1-2
0.9%
2-3
0.1%
-1
3%
0-2
0.3%
1-3
0.1%
2-4
0%
-2
0.5%
0-3
0%
-3
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Atlético
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jan. 2005 |
GET
1 - 1
ATM
27%
26%
47%
|
87 | 79 | 8 | 0 |
| 12 Jan. 2005 |
LOR
1 - 3
ATM
17%
22%
61%
|
87 | 61 | 26 | 0 |
| 09 Jan. 2005 |
ATM
0 - 3
RMA
25%
25%
51%
|
87 | 93 | 6 | 0 |
| 21 Dec. 2004 |
BET
1 - 0
ATM
48%
25%
27%
|
88 | 88 | 0 | -1 |
| 19 Dec. 2004 |
ATM
1 - 0
DEP
41%
27%
33%
|
87 | 90 | 3 | +1 |
Matches
Lorca Deportiva
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jan. 2005 |
LOR
2 - 1
RJA
65%
21%
14%
|
60 | 51 | 9 | 0 |
| 12 Jan. 2005 |
LOR
1 - 3
ATM
17%
22%
61%
|
61 | 87 | 26 | -1 |
| 09 Jan. 2005 |
ECI
0 - 3
LOR
34%
30%
37%
|
60 | 54 | 6 | +1 |
| 19 Dec. 2004 |
LOR
1 - 2
AGD
59%
23%
18%
|
61 | 58 | 3 | -1 |
| 12 Dec. 2004 |
UBC
2 - 1
LOR
37%
29%
34%
|
61 | 56 | 5 | 0 |