Copa del Rey Quarter-finals
Global 6-5
Atlético vs Espanyol analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
75.8%
Win probability
3.11
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.3%
9-1
0.1%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.4%
7-0
0.8%
8-1
0.4%
9-2
0.1%
+7
1.2%
6-0
1.7%
7-1
0.9%
8-2
0.2%
9-3
<0%
+6
2.9%
5-0
3.4%
6-1
2%
7-2
0.5%
8-3
0.1%
+5
6%
4-0
5.4%
5-1
3.9%
6-2
1.2%
7-3
0.2%
8-4
<0%
+4
10.8%
3-0
6.9%
4-1
6.3%
5-2
2.3%
6-3
0.5%
7-4
0.1%
+3
16.1%
2-0
6.7%
3-1
8.1%
4-2
3.7%
5-3
0.9%
6-4
0.1%
7-5
<0%
+2
19.5%
1-0
4.3%
2-1
7.8%
3-2
4.7%
4-3
1.4%
5-4
0.3%
6-5
<0%
+1
18.6%
13.3%
Draw
0-0
1.4%
1-1
5%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
1.9%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
0.1%
0
13.3%
10.9%
Win probability
1.17
Expected goals
0-1
1.6%
1-2
2.9%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
7%
0-2
0.9%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
2.8%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Atlético
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 May. 1953 |
ESP
3 - 1
ATM
63%
17%
20%
|
84 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 May. 1953 |
ATM
4 - 2
SEV
72%
15%
14%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | +1 |
| 17 May. 1953 |
SEV
1 - 1
ATM
67%
16%
17%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 03 May. 1953 |
ATM
4 - 1
DEP
77%
12%
10%
|
83 | 75 | 8 | 0 |
| 26 Apr. 1953 |
ATH
5 - 0
ATM
73%
14%
13%
|
84 | 85 | 1 | -1 |
Matches
Espanyol
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 May. 1953 |
ESP
3 - 1
ATM
63%
17%
20%
|
82 | 84 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 May. 1953 |
ESP
4 - 1
SPO
76%
13%
11%
|
82 | 76 | 6 | 0 |
| 17 May. 1953 |
SPO
1 - 0
ESP
51%
22%
27%
|
82 | 75 | 7 | 0 |
| 03 May. 1953 |
RSO
2 - 1
ESP
58%
20%
22%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 26 Apr. 1953 |
ESP
3 - 2
ZAR
80%
12%
8%
|
82 | 69 | 13 | 0 |