Copa del Rey 1/16
Global 8-3
Atlético vs CD Málaga analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
85.7%
Win probability
3.42
Expected goals
10-0
0.1%
+10
0.1%
9-0
0.3%
10-1
0.1%
+9
0.3%
8-0
0.7%
9-1
0.2%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.9%
7-0
1.6%
8-1
0.5%
9-2
0.1%
+7
2.2%
6-0
3.3%
7-1
1.3%
8-2
0.2%
9-3
<0%
+6
4.8%
5-0
5.8%
6-1
2.6%
7-2
0.5%
8-3
0.1%
+5
8.9%
4-0
8.4%
5-1
4.6%
6-2
1%
7-3
0.1%
8-4
<0%
+4
14.2%
3-0
9.9%
4-1
6.7%
5-2
1.8%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
18.7%
2-0
8.7%
3-1
7.8%
4-2
2.7%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
19.7%
1-0
5.1%
2-1
6.9%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
15.9%
9.2%
Draw
0-0
1.5%
1-1
4%
2-2
2.7%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
9.2%
5%
Win probability
0.79
Expected goals
0-1
1.2%
1-2
1.6%
2-3
0.7%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
3.7%
0-2
0.5%
1-3
0.4%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
1.1%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Atlético
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr. 1943 |
MAL
0 - 0
ATM
30%
22%
48%
|
84 | 58 | 26 | 0 |
| 04 Apr. 1943 |
ATM
3 - 1
CEL
66%
17%
17%
|
84 | 80 | 4 | 0 |
| 27 Mar. 1943 |
CAS
0 - 0
ATM
43%
23%
34%
|
84 | 76 | 8 | 0 |
| 21 Mar. 1943 |
ATM
5 - 1
BET
82%
11%
7%
|
83 | 66 | 17 | +1 |
| 14 Mar. 1943 |
ZAR
2 - 2
ATM
28%
22%
50%
|
84 | 68 | 16 | -1 |
Matches
CD Málaga
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr. 1943 |
MAL
0 - 0
ATM
30%
22%
48%
|
58 | 84 | 26 | 0 |
| 10 Jan. 1943 |
MAL
2 - 1
CAD
67%
18%
16%
|
58 | 57 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 Dec. 1942 |
HER
2 - 0
MAL
72%
17%
12%
|
58 | 69 | 11 | 0 |
| 13 Dec. 1942 |
MAL
3 - 2
ALC
75%
14%
11%
|
58 | 50 | 8 | 0 |
| 06 Dec. 1942 |
MUR
2 - 3
MAL
69%
18%
13%
|
57 | 62 | 5 | +1 |