Copa del Rey Semi-finals
Global 5-6
Atlético vs Athletic analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
62.5%
Win probability
2.56
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
9-3
<0%
+6
1.2%
5-0
1.7%
6-1
1%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.1%
4-0
3.4%
5-1
2.4%
6-2
0.7%
7-3
0.1%
8-4
<0%
+4
6.7%
3-0
5.3%
4-1
4.8%
5-2
1.7%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
12.2%
2-0
6.2%
3-1
7.5%
4-2
3.4%
5-3
0.8%
6-4
0.1%
7-5
<0%
+2
18%
1-0
4.9%
2-1
8.7%
3-2
5.2%
4-3
1.6%
5-4
0.3%
6-5
<0%
+1
20.7%
17.9%
Draw
0-0
1.9%
1-1
6.8%
2-2
6.1%
3-3
2.4%
4-4
0.6%
5-5
0.1%
0
17.9%
19.6%
Win probability
1.4
Expected goals
0-1
2.7%
1-2
4.8%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.9%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
11.4%
0-2
1.9%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
5.4%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0.1%
-3
2%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Atlético
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Jun. 1944 |
ATM
3 - 0
SEV
61%
18%
21%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 May. 1944 |
SEV
3 - 2
ATM
65%
17%
18%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | -1 |
| 21 May. 1944 |
CEL
3 - 2
ATM
39%
22%
39%
|
84 | 70 | 14 | 0 |
| 14 May. 1944 |
ATM
4 - 0
CEL
80%
11%
8%
|
84 | 71 | 13 | 0 |
| 07 May. 1944 |
ATM
7 - 2
RCD
90%
7%
4%
|
84 | 47 | 37 | 0 |
Matches
Athletic
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Jun. 1944 |
GRA
1 - 0
ATH
41%
22%
37%
|
85 | 77 | 8 | 0 |
| 28 May. 1944 |
ATH
6 - 1
GRA
78%
13%
10%
|
85 | 78 | 7 | 0 |
| 20 May. 1944 |
ATH
4 - 1
ARE
87%
8%
5%
|
85 | 58 | 27 | 0 |
| 14 May. 1944 |
ARE
1 - 6
ATH
26%
22%
52%
|
85 | 58 | 27 | 0 |
| 07 May. 1944 |
ATH
4 - 2
BAR
86%
9%
5%
|
84 | 61 | 23 | +1 |