Copa del Rey Last 16
Global 6-4
Athletic vs Real Madrid analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
67.7%
Win probability
2.89
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
0.1%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
0.1%
+7
0.7%
6-0
1.1%
7-1
0.6%
8-2
0.2%
9-3
<0%
+6
1.9%
5-0
2.3%
6-1
1.5%
7-2
0.5%
8-3
0.1%
+5
4.3%
4-0
3.9%
5-1
3.2%
6-2
1.1%
7-3
0.2%
8-4
<0%
+4
8.5%
3-0
5.4%
4-1
5.5%
5-2
2.3%
6-3
0.5%
7-4
0.1%
+3
13.8%
2-0
5.6%
3-1
7.7%
4-2
3.9%
5-3
1.1%
6-4
0.2%
7-5
<0%
+2
18.5%
1-0
3.9%
2-1
8%
3-2
5.4%
4-3
1.9%
5-4
0.4%
6-5
0.1%
+1
19.6%
15.9%
Draw
0-0
1.3%
1-1
5.5%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
2.6%
4-4
0.7%
5-5
0.1%
6-6
<0%
0
15.9%
16.4%
Win probability
1.42
Expected goals
0-1
1.9%
1-2
3.9%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.9%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
9.6%
0-2
1.4%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
4.5%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0.1%
-3
1.6%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
2-7
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Athletic
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Apr. 1949 |
ATH
1 - 1
RMA
68%
16%
16%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 21 Apr. 1949 |
RMA
2 - 2
ATH
65%
17%
18%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 Apr. 1949 |
CEL
3 - 4
ATH
58%
19%
23%
|
82 | 79 | 3 | +1 |
| 10 Apr. 1949 |
ATH
1 - 3
ATM
63%
18%
19%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | -1 |
| 03 Apr. 1949 |
VCF
5 - 0
ATH
68%
16%
16%
|
83 | 85 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Real Madrid
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Apr. 1949 |
ATH
1 - 1
RMA
68%
16%
16%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 21 Apr. 1949 |
RMA
2 - 2
ATH
65%
17%
18%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 Apr. 1949 |
ALC
2 - 2
RMA
28%
23%
49%
|
84 | 73 | 11 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 1949 |
RMA
3 - 1
GIM
69%
16%
15%
|
83 | 75 | 8 | +1 |
| 03 Apr. 1949 |
DEP
0 - 3
RMA
39%
23%
38%
|
83 | 75 | 8 | 0 |