Copa del Rey Quarter-finals
Global 5-2
Athletic vs Real Madrid analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
62.4%
Win probability
2.27
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
1.6%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.5%
4-0
3.6%
5-1
1.9%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
0.1%
+4
6%
3-0
6.3%
4-1
4.2%
5-2
1.1%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
11.8%
2-0
8.4%
3-1
7.3%
4-2
2.4%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.6%
1-0
7.4%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
4.2%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
22.3%
19.3%
Draw
0-0
3.2%
1-1
8.5%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
19.3%
18.3%
Win probability
1.16
Expected goals
0-1
3.7%
1-2
4.9%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
11.4%
0-2
2.2%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
4.8%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.6%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-1%
+2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Athletic
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Mar. 1920 |
RMA
1 - 1
ATH
60%
20%
20%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 07 May. 1916 |
ATH
4 - 0
RMA
58%
20%
21%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
| 02 May. 1915 |
ATH
5 - 0
ESP
65%
18%
16%
|
82 | 78 | 4 | +1 |
| 18 Apr. 1915 |
ATH
5 - 1
FDV
92%
6%
2%
|
82 | 10 | 72 | 0 |
| 11 Apr. 1915 |
FDV
0 - 0
ATH
11%
19%
70%
|
82 | 10 | 72 | 0 |
Matches
Real Madrid
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Mar. 1920 |
RMA
1 - 1
ATH
60%
20%
20%
|
82 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 May. 1918 |
RUN
2 - 0
RMA
18%
22%
61%
|
83 | 49 | 34 | -1 |
| 28 Apr. 1918 |
RMA
4 - 0
REC
89%
8%
3%
|
83 | 55 | 28 | 0 |
| 21 Apr. 1918 |
REC
0 - 2
RMA
22%
23%
55%
|
83 | 56 | 27 | 0 |
| 16 Apr. 1918 |
RMA
2 - 1
ESP
72%
16%
13%
|
82 | 77 | 5 | +1 |