Copa del Rey Quarter-finals
Global 3-2
Athletic vs Gimnàstic Tarragona analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
80.8%
Win probability
3.55
Expected goals
10-0
0.1%
+10
0.1%
9-0
0.2%
10-1
0.1%
+9
0.3%
8-0
0.6%
9-1
0.3%
10-2
0.1%
+8
0.9%
7-0
1.2%
8-1
0.6%
9-2
0.2%
10-3
<0%
+7
2.1%
6-0
2.5%
7-1
1.5%
8-2
0.4%
9-3
0.1%
+6
4.4%
5-0
4.2%
6-1
2.9%
7-2
0.9%
8-3
0.1%
9-4
<0%
+5
8.1%
4-0
5.9%
5-1
4.9%
6-2
1.7%
7-3
0.3%
8-4
<0%
+4
12.8%
3-0
6.6%
4-1
6.9%
5-2
2.9%
6-3
0.7%
7-4
0.1%
8-5
<0%
+3
17.2%
2-0
5.6%
3-1
7.8%
4-2
4%
5-3
1.1%
6-4
0.2%
7-5
<0%
+2
18.8%
1-0
3.2%
2-1
6.6%
3-2
4.6%
4-3
1.6%
5-4
0.3%
6-5
<0%
+1
16.3%
10.8%
Draw
0-0
0.9%
1-1
3.7%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
1.8%
4-4
0.5%
5-5
0.1%
0
10.8%
8.3%
Win probability
1.17
Expected goals
0-1
1%
1-2
2.2%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
5.4%
0-2
0.6%
1-3
0.9%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
2.1%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Athletic
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Apr. 1949 |
ATH
3 - 1
RMA
68%
16%
16%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 24 Apr. 1949 |
ATH
1 - 1
RMA
68%
16%
16%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 21 Apr. 1949 |
RMA
2 - 2
ATH
65%
17%
18%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 Apr. 1949 |
CEL
3 - 4
ATH
58%
19%
23%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 1949 |
ATH
1 - 3
ATM
63%
18%
19%
|
83 | 85 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Gimnàstic Tarragona
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Apr. 1949 |
ALB
3 - 0
GIM
22%
21%
58%
|
74 | 42 | 32 | 0 |
| 21 Apr. 1949 |
GIM
5 - 1
ALB
90%
7%
3%
|
74 | 43 | 31 | 0 |
| 17 Apr. 1949 |
GIM
1 - 4
DEP
63%
18%
19%
|
75 | 75 | 0 | -1 |
| 10 Apr. 1949 |
RMA
3 - 1
GIM
69%
16%
15%
|
75 | 84 | 9 | 0 |
| 03 Apr. 1949 |
GIM
2 - 4
OVI
48%
22%
30%
|
76 | 81 | 5 | -1 |