Copa del Rey 1/16
Global 4-3
Athletic vs Barakaldo analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
85.9%
Win probability
3.58
Expected goals
10-0
0.1%
+10
0.1%
9-0
0.3%
10-1
0.1%
+9
0.4%
8-0
0.8%
9-1
0.3%
10-2
<0%
+8
1.1%
7-0
1.7%
8-1
0.7%
9-2
0.1%
10-3
<0%
+7
2.6%
6-0
3.4%
7-1
1.5%
8-2
0.3%
9-3
<0%
+6
5.3%
5-0
5.7%
6-1
3%
7-2
0.7%
8-3
0.1%
+5
9.4%
4-0
8%
5-1
5%
6-2
1.3%
7-3
0.2%
8-4
<0%
+4
14.5%
3-0
8.9%
4-1
7%
5-2
2.2%
6-3
0.4%
7-4
<0%
+3
18.5%
2-0
7.5%
3-1
7.8%
4-2
3%
5-3
0.6%
6-4
0.1%
+2
19%
1-0
4.2%
2-1
6.5%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
15.1%
8.8%
Draw
0-0
1.2%
1-1
3.6%
2-2
2.8%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
8.8%
5.1%
Win probability
0.87
Expected goals
0-1
1%
1-2
1.6%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
3.7%
0-2
0.4%
1-3
0.5%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
1.1%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Athletic
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Apr. 1944 |
BAR
1 - 0
ATH
30%
22%
49%
|
85 | 59 | 26 | 0 |
| 09 Apr. 1944 |
VCF
5 - 4
ATH
67%
17%
16%
|
85 | 86 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 Apr. 1944 |
ATH
3 - 0
RSO
82%
11%
7%
|
85 | 69 | 16 | 0 |
| 26 Mar. 1944 |
ATH
1 - 2
RMA
69%
16%
15%
|
85 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 Mar. 1944 |
SAB
5 - 1
ATH
29%
25%
46%
|
86 | 69 | 17 | -1 |
Matches
Barakaldo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Apr. 1944 |
BAR
1 - 0
ATH
30%
22%
49%
|
59 | 85 | 26 | 0 |
| 09 Apr. 1944 |
BAR
3 - 1
VAD
55%
21%
24%
|
58 | 61 | 3 | +1 |
| 02 Apr. 1944 |
HER
2 - 1
BAR
65%
20%
16%
|
58 | 68 | 10 | 0 |
| 25 Mar. 1944 |
BAR
4 - 1
ARE
63%
19%
18%
|
57 | 56 | 1 | +1 |
| 19 Mar. 1944 |
BAR
1 - 1
SDC
51%
23%
27%
|
57 | 66 | 9 | 0 |