Copa del Rey 1/64
Global 1-2
Bilbao Ath. vs Barakaldo analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
58.7%
Win probability
2.25
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.2%
4-0
3%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
0.1%
+4
5.3%
3-0
5.4%
4-1
4%
5-2
1.2%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
10.8%
2-0
7.2%
3-1
7.1%
4-2
2.6%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
17.5%
1-0
6.5%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
4.6%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.8%
19.9%
Draw
0-0
2.9%
1-1
8.4%
2-2
6.2%
3-3
2%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
19.9%
21.5%
Win probability
1.3
Expected goals
0-1
3.7%
1-2
5.5%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
12.7%
0-2
2.4%
1-3
2.4%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
5.9%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.1%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Bilbao Ath.
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Nov. 1978 |
CDO
2 - 0
ATH
48%
28%
24%
|
55 | 54 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 Nov. 1978 |
ATH
2 - 1
PON
71%
19%
10%
|
54 | 52 | 2 | +1 |
| 12 Nov. 1978 |
LUG
0 - 1
ATH
40%
29%
32%
|
54 | 47 | 7 | 0 |
| 05 Nov. 1978 |
ATH
2 - 1
SSC
77%
15%
8%
|
54 | 45 | 9 | 0 |
| 29 Oct. 1978 |
ATH
3 - 1
TRJ
71%
19%
10%
|
53 | 50 | 3 | +1 |
Matches
Barakaldo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Nov. 1978 |
ELC
2 - 0
BAR
72%
18%
11%
|
59 | 72 | 13 | 0 |
| 18 Nov. 1978 |
BAR
0 - 0
DEP
57%
25%
19%
|
59 | 60 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 Nov. 1978 |
ALA
2 - 0
BAR
58%
24%
18%
|
60 | 64 | 4 | -1 |
| 05 Nov. 1978 |
BAR
1 - 0
SAB
63%
22%
15%
|
59 | 56 | 3 | +1 |
| 29 Oct. 1978 |
BAR
0 - 5
CAD
51%
27%
23%
|
60 | 66 | 6 | -1 |