Aston Villa vs Notts County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
86%
Win probability
3.22
Expected goals
10-0
0.1%
+10
0.1%
9-0
0.2%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.3%
8-0
0.6%
9-1
0.1%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.7%
7-0
1.5%
8-1
0.4%
9-2
<0%
+7
1.9%
6-0
3.2%
7-1
1%
8-2
0.1%
9-3
<0%
+6
4.3%
5-0
6%
6-1
2.1%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
8.4%
4-0
9.3%
5-1
3.9%
6-2
0.7%
7-3
0.1%
+4
13.9%
3-0
11.5%
4-1
6.1%
5-2
1.3%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
19.1%
2-0
10.7%
3-1
7.6%
4-2
2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.6%
1-0
6.7%
2-1
7.1%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
16.7%
9.4%
Draw
0-0
2.1%
1-1
4.4%
2-2
2.3%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
0.1%
0
9.4%
4.5%
Win probability
0.66
Expected goals
0-1
1.4%
1-2
1.4%
2-3
0.5%
3-4
0.1%
-1
3.4%
0-2
0.5%
1-3
0.3%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
0.9%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
+16%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aston Villa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Mar. 1913 |
DER
0 - 1
ASV
39%
24%
37%
|
86 | 78 | 8 | 0 |
| 08 Mar. 1913 |
BRA
0 - 5
ASV
17%
21%
62%
|
86 | 65 | 21 | 0 |
| 01 Mar. 1913 |
ASV
1 - 0
TOT
85%
10%
5%
|
85 | 76 | 9 | +1 |
| 22 Feb. 1913 |
ASV
5 - 0
CRY
93%
5%
2%
|
85 | 70 | 15 | 0 |
| 15 Feb. 1913 |
ASV
1 - 1
BBU
74%
15%
11%
|
85 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Notts County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Mar. 1913 |
NOT
1 - 2
MUD
30%
24%
46%
|
74 | 83 | 9 | 0 |
| 01 Mar. 1913 |
NOT
2 - 1
SUN
26%
24%
50%
|
74 | 85 | 11 | 0 |
| 15 Feb. 1913 |
NOT
0 - 1
TOT
51%
23%
25%
|
74 | 75 | 1 | 0 |
| 08 Feb. 1913 |
DER
1 - 0
NOT
75%
15%
11%
|
75 | 79 | 4 | -1 |
| 25 Jan. 1913 |
NOT
3 - 1
BBU
30%
25%
45%
|
74 | 84 | 10 | +1 |