Aston Villa vs Newcastle analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
61%
Win probability
2.3
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
1.5%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.5%
4-0
3.4%
5-1
1.9%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
5.8%
3-0
5.8%
4-1
4.2%
5-2
1.2%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
11.4%
2-0
7.6%
3-1
7.3%
4-2
2.6%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
18.1%
1-0
6.6%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
4.5%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.9%
19.3%
Draw
0-0
2.9%
1-1
8.3%
2-2
5.9%
3-3
1.9%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
19.3%
19.7%
Win probability
1.25
Expected goals
0-1
3.6%
1-2
5.2%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
11.9%
0-2
2.2%
1-3
2.1%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
5.3%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.8%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
+5%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aston Villa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Apr. 1953 |
ASV
2 - 0
CAR
69%
18%
14%
|
81 | 77 | 4 | 0 |
| 25 Apr. 1953 |
CAR
1 - 2
ASV
41%
25%
35%
|
81 | 78 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 Apr. 1953 |
ASV
4 - 3
SHW
64%
19%
18%
|
80 | 75 | 5 | +1 |
| 11 Apr. 1953 |
TOT
1 - 1
ASV
68%
17%
15%
|
80 | 83 | 3 | 0 |
| 07 Apr. 1953 |
ASV
1 - 1
WBA
56%
21%
23%
|
80 | 80 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Newcastle
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr. 1953 |
NEW
2 - 3
BOL
61%
20%
19%
|
80 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 Apr. 1953 |
OPA
5 - 1
NEW
60%
20%
20%
|
81 | 82 | 1 | -1 |
| 11 Apr. 1953 |
NEW
1 - 2
MUD
46%
23%
32%
|
81 | 85 | 4 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 1953 |
MID
2 - 1
NEW
45%
23%
32%
|
81 | 76 | 5 | 0 |
| 04 Apr. 1953 |
CHL
1 - 2
NEW
42%
24%
34%
|
81 | 76 | 5 | 0 |