Aston Villa vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
54.5%
Win probability
2.11
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
1.7%
4-0
2.6%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.4%
3-0
4.8%
4-1
3.5%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
9.5%
2-0
6.9%
3-1
6.6%
4-2
2.4%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
16.4%
1-0
6.5%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
4.5%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.7%
20.9%
Draw
0-0
3.1%
1-1
8.9%
2-2
6.4%
3-3
2.1%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
20.9%
24.6%
Win probability
1.37
Expected goals
0-1
4.2%
1-2
6.1%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
14%
0-2
2.9%
1-3
2.8%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
6.9%
0-3
1.3%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
2.6%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-4%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aston Villa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Aug. 1951 |
BOL
5 - 2
ASV
48%
24%
28%
|
80 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 05 May. 1951 |
ASV
6 - 2
STO
60%
21%
20%
|
80 | 78 | 2 | 0 |
| 25 Apr. 1951 |
LIV
0 - 0
ASV
56%
22%
23%
|
80 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 21 Apr. 1951 |
EVE
1 - 2
ASV
42%
25%
33%
|
79 | 74 | 5 | +1 |
| 14 Apr. 1951 |
ASV
3 - 3
OPA
48%
23%
29%
|
79 | 84 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Aug. 1951 |
WOL
1 - 2
DER
63%
19%
19%
|
81 | 83 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 1951 |
DER
3 - 4
SUN
62%
18%
20%
|
81 | 81 | 0 | 0 |
| 05 May. 1951 |
CHA
1 - 2
DER
47%
23%
31%
|
81 | 77 | 4 | 0 |
| 28 Apr. 1951 |
DER
0 - 1
EVE
75%
14%
11%
|
82 | 74 | 8 | -1 |
| 21 Apr. 1951 |
OPA
2 - 2
DER
60%
20%
20%
|
82 | 84 | 2 | 0 |