Aston Villa vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
69.5%
Win probability
2.56
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.5%
5-0
2.4%
6-1
1.1%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.8%
4-0
4.8%
5-1
2.6%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
8%
3-0
7.4%
4-1
5.1%
5-2
1.4%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
14.1%
2-0
8.7%
3-1
7.9%
4-2
2.7%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
19.9%
1-0
6.8%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
4.2%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.5%
16.7%
Draw
0-0
2.7%
1-1
7.3%
2-2
5%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
16.7%
13.7%
Win probability
1.07
Expected goals
0-1
2.8%
1-2
3.9%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
9%
0-2
1.5%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
3.5%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
-13%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aston Villa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Aug. 1934 |
ASV
2 - 1
WOL
71%
16%
13%
|
83 | 77 | 6 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 1934 |
BIR
2 - 1
ASV
41%
24%
34%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 05 May. 1934 |
EVE
2 - 2
ASV
56%
20%
24%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 30 Apr. 1934 |
ASV
3 - 0
LEE
71%
16%
13%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 28 Apr. 1934 |
ASV
4 - 4
WBA
67%
17%
16%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Aug. 1934 |
HUR
1 - 0
DER
58%
22%
20%
|
82 | 85 | 3 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 1934 |
DER
3 - 0
CHL
65%
19%
16%
|
81 | 79 | 2 | +1 |
| 28 Apr. 1934 |
SHE
2 - 0
DER
51%
22%
27%
|
82 | 76 | 6 | -1 |
| 21 Apr. 1934 |
DER
1 - 1
ASV
56%
21%
24%
|
82 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 Apr. 1934 |
LEI
2 - 0
DER
56%
22%
23%
|
82 | 79 | 3 | 0 |