Aston Villa vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
63.3%
Win probability
2.38
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1%
5-0
1.8%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.8%
4-0
3.7%
5-1
2.1%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
6.4%
3-0
6.2%
4-1
4.5%
5-2
1.3%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
12.2%
2-0
7.8%
3-1
7.5%
4-2
2.7%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
18.6%
1-0
6.6%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
4.5%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.8%
18.6%
Draw
0-0
2.8%
1-1
8%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.8%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
18.6%
18%
Win probability
1.21
Expected goals
0-1
3.4%
1-2
4.8%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
11.1%
0-2
2%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
4.8%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.6%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-4%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aston Villa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Nov. 1930 |
ARS
5 - 2
ASV
55%
21%
24%
|
85 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 01 Nov. 1930 |
ASV
5 - 2
BBU
66%
18%
16%
|
84 | 81 | 3 | +1 |
| 25 Oct. 1930 |
LEI
4 - 1
ASV
61%
19%
20%
|
85 | 84 | 1 | -1 |
| 18 Oct. 1930 |
ASV
1 - 1
BIR
73%
16%
12%
|
85 | 80 | 5 | 0 |
| 11 Oct. 1930 |
SUN
1 - 1
ASV
54%
21%
26%
|
85 | 81 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Nov. 1930 |
DER
2 - 2
LIV
68%
17%
15%
|
84 | 81 | 3 | 0 |
| 01 Nov. 1930 |
BOL
1 - 2
DER
49%
23%
28%
|
84 | 80 | 4 | 0 |
| 25 Oct. 1930 |
DER
2 - 3
SHW
59%
20%
21%
|
84 | 86 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 Oct. 1930 |
NEW
2 - 5
DER
53%
22%
25%
|
84 | 80 | 4 | 0 |
| 11 Oct. 1930 |
DER
4 - 2
ARS
60%
20%
21%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |