Aston Villa vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
63.2%
Win probability
2.31
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1%
5-0
1.7%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.6%
4-0
3.7%
5-1
2%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
0.1%
+4
6.2%
3-0
6.4%
4-1
4.3%
5-2
1.1%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
12.1%
2-0
8.3%
3-1
7.4%
4-2
2.5%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.7%
1-0
7.2%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
4.3%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
22.2%
19%
Draw
0-0
3.1%
1-1
8.3%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
19%
17.8%
Win probability
1.16
Expected goals
0-1
3.6%
1-2
4.8%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
11.1%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
4.7%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.5%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-3%
-13%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aston Villa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Sep. 1929 |
LEE
4 - 1
ASV
43%
23%
34%
|
83 | 76 | 7 | 0 |
| 04 Sep. 1929 |
DER
4 - 0
ASV
58%
20%
22%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 1929 |
ASV
2 - 1
BIR
70%
17%
14%
|
83 | 78 | 5 | 0 |
| 04 May. 1929 |
ASV
4 - 1
SHW
64%
19%
17%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 Apr. 1929 |
MAC
3 - 0
ASV
62%
19%
20%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Sep. 1929 |
BOL
1 - 2
DER
56%
22%
22%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 04 Sep. 1929 |
DER
4 - 0
ASV
58%
20%
22%
|
82 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 1929 |
DER
3 - 0
SUN
60%
20%
21%
|
81 | 82 | 1 | +1 |
| 04 May. 1929 |
BCF
3 - 3
DER
51%
22%
27%
|
81 | 76 | 5 | 0 |
| 27 Apr. 1929 |
DER
1 - 2
NEW
66%
19%
16%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | -1 |