Aston Villa vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
66.9%
Win probability
2.15
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
1.9%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.5%
4-0
4.4%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.3%
3-0
8.2%
4-1
3.8%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.7%
2-0
11.4%
3-1
7%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.2%
1-0
10.6%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
24%
19.3%
Draw
0-0
5%
1-1
9.1%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
19.3%
13.8%
Win probability
0.86
Expected goals
0-1
4.3%
1-2
3.9%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
9.6%
0-2
1.8%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.2%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-3%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aston Villa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Oct. 1926 |
MUD
2 - 1
ASV
44%
24%
31%
|
80 | 78 | 2 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 1926 |
ASV
3 - 4
BOL
49%
24%
27%
|
80 | 85 | 5 | 0 |
| 18 Sep. 1926 |
ASV
1 - 2
BCF
58%
22%
21%
|
80 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 1926 |
LEE
3 - 1
ASV
38%
25%
37%
|
81 | 74 | 7 | -1 |
| 11 Sep. 1926 |
CAR
2 - 3
ASV
48%
24%
29%
|
80 | 82 | 2 | +1 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Oct. 1926 |
DER
6 - 3
CAR
46%
25%
29%
|
75 | 81 | 6 | 0 |
| 27 Sep. 1926 |
DER
1 - 0
SHE
37%
25%
38%
|
74 | 83 | 9 | +1 |
| 25 Sep. 1926 |
BUR
1 - 0
DER
73%
16%
11%
|
74 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 18 Sep. 1926 |
DER
1 - 1
NEW
46%
26%
28%
|
74 | 83 | 9 | 0 |
| 13 Sep. 1926 |
SHE
1 - 0
DER
75%
15%
10%
|
75 | 83 | 8 | -1 |