Aston Villa vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
74.2%
Win probability
2.5
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1.2%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.6%
5-0
3%
6-1
1%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
4.1%
4-0
5.9%
5-1
2.4%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
8.8%
3-0
9.5%
4-1
4.8%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.1%
+3
15.4%
2-0
11.4%
3-1
7.7%
4-2
2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.3%
1-0
9.1%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.1%
15.8%
Draw
0-0
3.6%
1-1
7.4%
2-2
3.8%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
15.7%
10.1%
Win probability
0.81
Expected goals
0-1
3%
1-2
3%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
7.2%
0-2
1.2%
1-3
0.8%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.2%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-3%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aston Villa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Apr. 1921 |
DER
2 - 3
ASV
43%
25%
32%
|
80 | 74 | 6 | 0 |
| 16 Apr. 1921 |
ASV
3 - 0
BBU
63%
20%
17%
|
80 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 09 Apr. 1921 |
BBU
0 - 1
ASV
65%
18%
17%
|
80 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 Apr. 1921 |
ASV
0 - 1
MID
65%
19%
17%
|
80 | 80 | 0 | 0 |
| 29 Mar. 1921 |
CHL
5 - 1
ASV
50%
24%
26%
|
80 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Apr. 1921 |
DER
2 - 3
ASV
43%
25%
32%
|
74 | 80 | 6 | 0 |
| 16 Apr. 1921 |
LIV
1 - 1
DER
73%
17%
11%
|
74 | 84 | 10 | 0 |
| 09 Apr. 1921 |
DER
0 - 0
LIV
44%
28%
28%
|
74 | 84 | 10 | 0 |
| 02 Apr. 1921 |
NEW
0 - 1
DER
68%
19%
13%
|
73 | 83 | 10 | +1 |
| 28 Mar. 1921 |
DER
0 - 1
SUN
38%
25%
37%
|
74 | 82 | 8 | -1 |