Aston Villa vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
72%
Win probability
2.63
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
<0%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.5%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1.2%
7-1
0.5%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.7%
5-0
2.8%
6-1
1.2%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
4.2%
4-0
5.2%
5-1
2.8%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
8.7%
3-0
8%
4-1
5.3%
5-2
1.4%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
14.9%
2-0
9.1%
3-1
8%
4-2
2.7%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
20.3%
1-0
6.9%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
4%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.2%
15.8%
Draw
0-0
2.6%
1-1
7%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
15.8%
12.2%
Win probability
1.01
Expected goals
0-1
2.7%
1-2
3.5%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
8.1%
0-2
1.3%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
3%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-3%
-13%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aston Villa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Aug. 1919 |
SUN
2 - 1
ASV
59%
20%
20%
|
83 | 85 | 2 | 0 |
| 28 Apr. 1915 |
NEW
3 - 0
ASV
42%
25%
34%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 26 Apr. 1915 |
MUD
1 - 0
ASV
41%
25%
35%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | -1 |
| 21 Apr. 1915 |
ASV
4 - 1
MAC
68%
19%
14%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | +1 |
| 17 Apr. 1915 |
ASV
0 - 0
OLD
66%
19%
16%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Aug. 1919 |
DER
1 - 1
MUD
54%
23%
24%
|
78 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 Apr. 1915 |
DER
2 - 0
PNE
61%
22%
18%
|
77 | 78 | 1 | +1 |
| 17 Apr. 1915 |
BCF
2 - 0
DER
33%
27%
41%
|
78 | 65 | 13 | -1 |
| 10 Apr. 1915 |
DER
1 - 0
BRI
78%
14%
9%
|
78 | 64 | 14 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 1915 |
DER
1 - 0
LEI
87%
9%
4%
|
78 | 54 | 24 | 0 |