Aston Villa vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
83.1%
Win probability
3.01
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.2%
8-0
0.4%
9-1
0.1%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.5%
7-0
1.1%
8-1
0.3%
9-2
<0%
+7
1.4%
6-0
2.5%
7-1
0.8%
8-2
0.1%
+6
3.4%
5-0
5%
6-1
1.8%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
7.1%
4-0
8.3%
5-1
3.5%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
12.5%
3-0
11.1%
4-1
5.9%
5-2
1.2%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
18.3%
2-0
11.1%
3-1
7.8%
4-2
2.1%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.2%
1-0
7.4%
2-1
7.8%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
18.4%
11.1%
Draw
0-0
2.4%
1-1
5.2%
2-2
2.7%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
11.1%
5.8%
Win probability
0.7
Expected goals
0-1
1.7%
1-2
1.8%
2-3
0.6%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
4.3%
0-2
0.6%
1-3
0.4%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
1.2%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
+5%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aston Villa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Oct. 1912 |
BBU
2 - 2
ASV
52%
23%
25%
|
85 | 85 | 0 | 0 |
| 05 Oct. 1912 |
ASV
10 - 0
SHW
68%
17%
14%
|
85 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 Sep. 1912 |
EVE
0 - 1
ASV
50%
24%
27%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | +1 |
| 21 Sep. 1912 |
ASV
2 - 4
WBA
81%
12%
7%
|
85 | 77 | 8 | -1 |
| 16 Sep. 1912 |
ARS
0 - 3
ASV
35%
26%
39%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | +1 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Oct. 1912 |
DER
2 - 1
MUD
44%
23%
33%
|
77 | 83 | 6 | 0 |
| 05 Oct. 1912 |
NOT
0 - 1
DER
59%
22%
19%
|
76 | 77 | 1 | +1 |
| 28 Sep. 1912 |
DER
0 - 2
MID
61%
20%
19%
|
77 | 78 | 1 | -1 |
| 21 Sep. 1912 |
TOT
1 - 2
DER
63%
20%
17%
|
76 | 75 | 1 | +1 |
| 18 Sep. 1912 |
DER
1 - 4
EVE
49%
24%
28%
|
77 | 83 | 6 | -1 |