Europa League Quarter-finals
Global 3-4
Aston Villa vs Barcelona analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
59%
Win probability
1.77
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.3%
4-0
3%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
+4
4%
3-0
6.7%
4-1
2.5%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
9.6%
2-0
11.4%
3-1
5.7%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
18.3%
1-0
12.9%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.3%
23.2%
Draw
0-0
7.3%
1-1
11%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.2%
17.8%
Win probability
0.85
Expected goals
0-1
6.2%
1-2
4.7%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
12.2%
0-2
2.7%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.3%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1.1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aston Villa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Feb. 1978 |
BIR
1 - 0
ASV
51%
24%
25%
|
87 | 83 | 4 | 0 |
| 04 Feb. 1978 |
ARS
0 - 1
ASV
54%
25%
22%
|
87 | 87 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 Jan. 1978 |
ASV
1 - 0
BRI
74%
17%
9%
|
87 | 81 | 6 | 0 |
| 14 Jan. 1978 |
EVE
1 - 0
ASV
60%
22%
18%
|
87 | 87 | 0 | 0 |
| 02 Jan. 1978 |
ASV
1 - 1
QPR
64%
21%
16%
|
87 | 84 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Barcelona
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Feb. 1978 |
RAC
0 - 0
FCB
33%
28%
40%
|
87 | 72 | 15 | 0 |
| 22 Feb. 1978 |
FCB
2 - 0
ALA
90%
7%
3%
|
87 | 67 | 20 | 0 |
| 19 Feb. 1978 |
FCB
1 - 1
CAD
87%
9%
4%
|
87 | 67 | 20 | 0 |
| 15 Feb. 1978 |
ALA
1 - 0
FCB
18%
24%
58%
|
88 | 65 | 23 | -1 |
| 12 Feb. 1978 |
ATM
1 - 0
FCB
54%
24%
23%
|
88 | 85 | 3 | 0 |