Spezia vs ACR Messina analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
58.3%
Win probability
2.2
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.1%
4-0
3%
5-1
1.7%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
0.1%
+4
5.1%
3-0
5.5%
4-1
3.8%
5-2
1.1%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
10.6%
2-0
7.5%
3-1
7%
4-2
2.5%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
17.4%
1-0
6.8%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
4.5%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
22%
20.2%
Draw
0-0
3.1%
1-1
8.7%
2-2
6.1%
3-3
1.9%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
20.2%
21.5%
Win probability
1.28
Expected goals
0-1
4%
1-2
5.6%
2-3
2.6%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
12.8%
0-2
2.5%
1-3
2.4%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
5.9%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.1%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+7%
-8%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Spezia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Mar. 1951 |
SPE
1 - 0
SIR
62%
20%
19%
|
61 | 61 | 0 | 0 |
| 04 Mar. 1951 |
VIC
4 - 1
SPE
63%
19%
18%
|
62 | 64 | 2 | -1 |
| 18 Feb. 1951 |
TRE
4 - 2
SPE
59%
20%
21%
|
63 | 61 | 2 | -1 |
| 11 Feb. 1951 |
SPE
1 - 0
ANC
75%
15%
11%
|
63 | 50 | 13 | 0 |
| 04 Feb. 1951 |
SPE
1 - 0
VER
56%
21%
23%
|
62 | 65 | 3 | +1 |
Matches
ACR Messina
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Mar. 1951 |
MES
2 - 0
UNI
41%
23%
36%
|
60 | 72 | 12 | 0 |
| 04 Mar. 1951 |
MES
4 - 1
BRE
53%
21%
26%
|
59 | 66 | 7 | +1 |
| 25 Feb. 1951 |
ANC
1 - 1
MES
46%
23%
32%
|
59 | 50 | 9 | 0 |
| 18 Feb. 1951 |
MOD
2 - 0
MES
63%
19%
18%
|
60 | 70 | 10 | -1 |
| 11 Feb. 1951 |
MES
1 - 0
SER
81%
11%
8%
|
60 | 47 | 13 | 0 |