Varese vs SPAL analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
40.9%
Win probability
1.17
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.9%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.2%
3-0
3.2%
4-1
0.9%
5-2
0.1%
+3
4.2%
2-0
8.2%
3-1
3.1%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
11.8%
1-0
14.1%
2-1
7.8%
3-2
1.4%
4-3
0.1%
+1
23.5%
29.5%
Draw
0-0
12%
1-1
13.3%
2-2
3.7%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
29.5%
29.5%
Win probability
0.95
Expected goals
0-1
11.4%
1-2
6.3%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.1%
-1
19%
0-2
5.4%
1-3
2%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
7.7%
0-3
1.7%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.2%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Varese
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Mar. 2004 |
CTT
2 - 0
VAR
58%
24%
18%
|
50 | 56 | 6 | 0 |
| 07 Mar. 2004 |
VAR
0 - 0
ACL
34%
29%
38%
|
51 | 60 | 9 | -1 |
| 03 Mar. 2004 |
VAR
0 - 2
ASL
39%
30%
32%
|
51 | 59 | 8 | 0 |
| 15 Feb. 2004 |
PAD
1 - 1
VAR
61%
23%
16%
|
51 | 59 | 8 | 0 |
| 08 Feb. 2004 |
NOV
1 - 0
VAR
71%
19%
11%
|
52 | 60 | 8 | -1 |
Matches
SPAL
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Mar. 2004 |
SPA
1 - 0
PAD
44%
28%
28%
|
55 | 57 | 2 | 0 |
| 07 Mar. 2004 |
ARZ
1 - 1
SPA
62%
23%
16%
|
55 | 60 | 5 | 0 |
| 22 Feb. 2004 |
SPA
1 - 1
RIM
45%
27%
28%
|
55 | 56 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 Feb. 2004 |
REG
1 - 0
SPA
45%
28%
26%
|
56 | 53 | 3 | -1 |
| 09 Feb. 2004 |
SPA
1 - 0
ASL
45%
27%
27%
|
55 | 58 | 3 | +1 |