Serie B Playout Final
Global 4-2
Varese vs Novara analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
43.9%
Win probability
1.61
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.5%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.2%
3-0
3.7%
4-1
2%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.1%
2-0
6.8%
3-1
4.9%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
13.2%
1-0
8.5%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.5%
24.3%
Draw
0-0
5.3%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
6.1%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.3%
31.7%
Win probability
1.33
Expected goals
0-1
7%
1-2
7.5%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
17.8%
0-2
4.7%
1-3
3.3%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
9.1%
0-3
2.1%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.5%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Varese
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Jun. 2014 |
NOV
0 - 2
VAR
47%
25%
29%
|
62 | 65 | 3 | 0 |
| 30 May. 2014 |
VAR
2 - 0
SIE
22%
26%
52%
|
61 | 78 | 17 | +1 |
| 24 May. 2014 |
NOV
0 - 0
VAR
52%
25%
23%
|
61 | 66 | 5 | 0 |
| 17 May. 2014 |
VAR
1 - 2
BRE
39%
27%
34%
|
61 | 66 | 5 | 0 |
| 13 May. 2014 |
SPE
2 - 1
VAR
53%
24%
23%
|
62 | 66 | 4 | -1 |
Matches
Novara
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Jun. 2014 |
NOV
0 - 2
VAR
47%
25%
29%
|
65 | 62 | 3 | 0 |
| 30 May. 2014 |
BAR
4 - 1
NOV
50%
26%
25%
|
66 | 70 | 4 | -1 |
| 24 May. 2014 |
NOV
0 - 0
VAR
52%
25%
23%
|
66 | 61 | 5 | 0 |
| 17 May. 2014 |
EMP
3 - 1
NOV
60%
22%
18%
|
66 | 74 | 8 | 0 |
| 13 May. 2014 |
NOV
2 - 0
JUS
68%
20%
12%
|
66 | 53 | 13 | 0 |