Varese vs Novara analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
64.2%
Win probability
1.69
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.4%
4-0
3.5%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
4.2%
3-0
8.2%
4-1
2%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
10.5%
2-0
14.6%
3-1
4.8%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
<0%
+2
20.1%
1-0
17.3%
2-1
8.6%
3-2
1.4%
4-3
0.1%
+1
27.5%
23.3%
Draw
0-0
10.3%
1-1
10.2%
2-2
2.5%
3-3
0.3%
4-4
<0%
0
23.3%
12.5%
Win probability
0.59
Expected goals
0-1
6%
1-2
3%
2-3
0.5%
3-4
0%
-1
9.6%
0-2
1.8%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.1%
-2
2.4%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Varese
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr. 1976 |
BRI
1 - 0
VAR
26%
29%
45%
|
68 | 54 | 14 | 0 |
| 18 Apr. 1976 |
VAR
4 - 3
SPA
62%
24%
14%
|
68 | 62 | 6 | 0 |
| 11 Apr. 1976 |
PES
0 - 2
VAR
39%
29%
32%
|
67 | 60 | 7 | +1 |
| 04 Apr. 1976 |
REG
1 - 3
VAR
40%
28%
31%
|
66 | 58 | 8 | +1 |
| 28 Mar. 1976 |
VAR
3 - 3
BRE
63%
25%
12%
|
66 | 61 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Novara
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr. 1976 |
NOV
3 - 0
REG
64%
24%
12%
|
61 | 56 | 5 | 0 |
| 11 Apr. 1976 |
NOV
2 - 0
ATL
53%
28%
19%
|
60 | 61 | 1 | +1 |
| 04 Apr. 1976 |
CAT
0 - 1
NOV
45%
30%
25%
|
60 | 57 | 3 | 0 |
| 28 Mar. 1976 |
NOV
0 - 0
PES
47%
27%
26%
|
60 | 61 | 1 | 0 |
| 21 Mar. 1976 |
NOV
2 - 1
AVE
54%
27%
19%
|
59 | 59 | 0 | +1 |