Varese vs Novara analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
58.9%
Win probability
1.64
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.8%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.5%
3-0
6.8%
4-1
2.1%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
9.1%
2-0
12.4%
3-1
5%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
18.3%
1-0
15.1%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
1.9%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
26.4%
24.4%
Draw
0-0
9.2%
1-1
11.2%
2-2
3.4%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
24.4%
16.7%
Win probability
0.74
Expected goals
0-1
6.8%
1-2
4.2%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.1%
-1
12%
0-2
2.5%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.7%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Varese
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Mar. 1967 |
PAD
3 - 0
VAR
50%
23%
27%
|
70 | 65 | 5 | 0 |
| 26 Feb. 1967 |
FCC
2 - 1
VAR
36%
30%
34%
|
70 | 63 | 7 | 0 |
| 19 Feb. 1967 |
CAT
0 - 0
VAR
41%
29%
31%
|
70 | 66 | 4 | 0 |
| 12 Feb. 1967 |
VAR
2 - 1
SAV
72%
20%
9%
|
70 | 50 | 20 | 0 |
| 05 Feb. 1967 |
MOD
2 - 2
VAR
40%
29%
31%
|
70 | 65 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Novara
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Feb. 1967 |
NOV
0 - 2
SAM
25%
29%
46%
|
61 | 75 | 14 | 0 |
| 19 Feb. 1967 |
MOD
1 - 0
NOV
56%
25%
19%
|
62 | 65 | 3 | -1 |
| 12 Feb. 1967 |
NOV
3 - 2
REG
40%
28%
32%
|
61 | 66 | 5 | +1 |
| 05 Feb. 1967 |
NOV
1 - 0
CAT
39%
29%
32%
|
60 | 67 | 7 | +1 |
| 22 Jan. 1967 |
GEN
0 - 1
NOV
64%
22%
14%
|
59 | 69 | 10 | +1 |