Varese vs Modena analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
37.6%
Win probability
1.28
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.9%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.2%
3-0
2.8%
4-1
1.1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.1%
2-0
6.6%
3-1
3.5%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
10.9%
1-0
10.4%
2-1
8.2%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
21%
26.9%
Draw
0-0
8.1%
1-1
12.8%
2-2
5%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.9%
35.5%
Win probability
1.23
Expected goals
0-1
10%
1-2
7.9%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
20.3%
0-2
6.2%
1-3
3.2%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
10.1%
0-3
2.5%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.7%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
1.1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Varese
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Oct. 2014 |
FRO
1 - 1
VAR
51%
25%
24%
|
65 | 69 | 4 | 0 |
| 25 Oct. 2014 |
VAR
2 - 1
BAR
36%
27%
37%
|
64 | 73 | 9 | +1 |
| 18 Oct. 2014 |
BOL
3 - 0
VAR
60%
23%
17%
|
64 | 74 | 10 | 0 |
| 13 Oct. 2014 |
VAR
2 - 2
CTT
54%
24%
22%
|
65 | 62 | 3 | -1 |
| 04 Oct. 2014 |
BRE
1 - 1
VAR
53%
24%
23%
|
65 | 68 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Modena
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Oct. 2014 |
VIC
0 - 2
MOD
28%
28%
45%
|
72 | 59 | 13 | 0 |
| 24 Oct. 2014 |
MOD
0 - 0
BOL
41%
28%
31%
|
72 | 75 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 Oct. 2014 |
FRO
2 - 0
MOD
40%
27%
32%
|
72 | 69 | 3 | 0 |
| 11 Oct. 2014 |
MOD
1 - 1
BRE
54%
26%
20%
|
73 | 68 | 5 | -1 |
| 04 Oct. 2014 |
BAR
1 - 1
MOD
43%
27%
30%
|
73 | 71 | 2 | 0 |