Varese vs Modena analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
50.3%
Win probability
1.44
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.8%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
<0%
+4
2.3%
3-0
4.9%
4-1
1.5%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.7%
2-0
10.2%
3-1
4.3%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
15.3%
1-0
14.2%
2-1
9%
3-2
1.9%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.3%
26.8%
Draw
0-0
9.9%
1-1
12.4%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
26.8%
22.9%
Win probability
0.88
Expected goals
0-1
8.7%
1-2
5.4%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.1%
-1
15.4%
0-2
3.8%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
5.6%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1.5%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Varese
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Jan. 2000 |
BRE
0 - 2
VAR
39%
27%
35%
|
58 | 51 | 7 | 0 |
| 06 Jan. 2000 |
VAR
0 - 1
PIS
36%
30%
35%
|
59 | 70 | 11 | -1 |
| 23 Dec. 1999 |
MON
0 - 2
VAR
28%
26%
46%
|
59 | 44 | 15 | 0 |
| 19 Dec. 1999 |
VAR
2 - 0
LEC
60%
23%
17%
|
58 | 52 | 6 | +1 |
| 12 Dec. 1999 |
REG
3 - 2
VAR
53%
27%
20%
|
58 | 65 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Modena
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Jan. 2000 |
MOD
1 - 0
MON
68%
21%
12%
|
58 | 42 | 16 | 0 |
| 06 Jan. 2000 |
MOD
0 - 3
CAR
61%
23%
16%
|
59 | 49 | 10 | -1 |
| 23 Dec. 1999 |
LEC
0 - 0
MOD
35%
27%
38%
|
60 | 51 | 9 | -1 |
| 19 Dec. 1999 |
MOD
2 - 1
SAN
70%
20%
11%
|
59 | 39 | 20 | +1 |
| 15 Dec. 1999 |
MOD
1 - 1
REG
39%
29%
33%
|
59 | 65 | 6 | 0 |