Varese vs Modena analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
68.6%
Win probability
1.79
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.5%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.8%
4-0
4.3%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
5.1%
3-0
9.6%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
12%
2-0
16%
3-1
4.9%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
<0%
+2
21.5%
1-0
17.9%
2-1
8.2%
3-2
1.3%
4-3
0.1%
+1
27.5%
21.5%
Draw
0-0
10%
1-1
9.2%
2-2
2.1%
3-3
0.2%
4-4
<0%
0
21.5%
9.9%
Win probability
0.51
Expected goals
0-1
5.1%
1-2
2.3%
2-3
0.4%
3-4
0%
-1
7.8%
0-2
1.3%
1-3
0.4%
2-4
0%
-2
1.8%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Varese
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jan. 1976 |
FCC
1 - 2
VAR
48%
29%
23%
|
66 | 66 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 Jan. 1976 |
VAR
3 - 0
AVE
68%
22%
10%
|
66 | 57 | 9 | 0 |
| 11 Jan. 1976 |
VIC
0 - 2
VAR
57%
25%
18%
|
65 | 67 | 2 | +1 |
| 04 Jan. 1976 |
TAR
2 - 0
VAR
34%
32%
35%
|
66 | 59 | 7 | -1 |
| 21 Dec. 1975 |
VAR
2 - 1
PIA
59%
24%
17%
|
65 | 58 | 7 | +1 |
Matches
Modena
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jan. 1976 |
PES
2 - 1
MOD
60%
24%
16%
|
57 | 62 | 5 | 0 |
| 18 Jan. 1976 |
MOD
2 - 1
VIC
36%
32%
33%
|
57 | 66 | 9 | 0 |
| 11 Jan. 1976 |
TAR
1 - 1
MOD
52%
29%
19%
|
56 | 60 | 4 | +1 |
| 04 Jan. 1976 |
MOD
1 - 2
BRE
48%
31%
21%
|
57 | 60 | 3 | -1 |
| 21 Dec. 1975 |
ATL
1 - 1
MOD
59%
26%
15%
|
57 | 61 | 4 | 0 |